BAHAMAS BOWL PREVIEW – EASTERN MICHIGAN vs OLD DOMINION
OLD DOMINION 4 E MICHIGAN (64.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Old Dominion -6 Sagarin ratings – Old Dominion -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Old Dominion 34.25 E Michigan 30.25
The Game
We do not want to hear from the skeptics ! We love this match-up. Old Dominion is playing in their first ever bowl game while the Eastern Michigan Eagles are participating in the program’s 2nd bowl contest. We all remember how exciting the 1987 California Bowl was that year (Eagles 30-27 win over San Jose St) and expect a fun and high-scoring game in the Bahamas !
The Match-Up
E Michigan offense vs Old Dominion defense
The Eagles just found a way to get it done. They won seven games and had N Illinois buried but somehow screwed that one up. RB Ian Eriksen (741 yards) gives E Michigan at least a bit of balance and should be able to go for the game (listed as Q). However, the Eagles need to get the passing game working and QB B Roback is going to need one of the best games of his career to give them a shot. Roback threw for 16 TDs and 6 INTs (not a full season of work) and finished off the season with a fine game vs C Michigan.
The Old Dominion defense was rated in the top half of C-USA in most statistical categories. They did give up points (35,24,28 last 3 games) and the Eagles’ offense is good enough to get into at least the mid-high 20s. The Monarch’s did a good job getting PENETRATION (34 sacks ! – 2nd C-USA) but the Eagles did a decent job with sacks allowed (#13 FBS) and TFL allowed (#2 – FBS !). ODU was second in C-USA in turnovers gained (22) and should be able to bank a couple in this game.
Old Dominion offense vs E Michigan defense
The Monarchs are led by QB David Washington who has a phenomenal 28-4 TD to INT ratio (!). RBs R Lawry and J Cox combined for over 1,800 yards rushing and 24 TDs. They spread the ball around nicely in the passing game and their top three receivers all had 7 or more TD receptions. They struggled a bit on 3rd downs but the Eagles’ defense is definitely one that they can handle. ODU finished the season red hot winning their last 5 games and scoring a lot of points. E Michigan only allowed 40+ twice all season but we do see the Monarchs getting into the 30s. That might be too much for the Eagles to overcome.
Motivation / Intangibles
E Michigan – The team will play like their hair is on fire. The program has endured a lot of losing over the past couple of decades and will be thrilled to be on this stage. GRADE: Excellent.
Old Dominion – The Monarchs also have a fine motivational setup. They can all be legends if they win this game and become the first team at ODU to accomplish that feat. GRADE: Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
The Monarchs were ranked #4 in the FBS in turnover margin (+11) whilst the Eagles were (+1)…..TREND GUY has to a tough call on the total….ODU games are 13-5-1 to the over L19 but E Michigan games are on a 8-2 L10 streak to the under….Old Dominion actually tied for FIRST in their division but lost the tiebreaker to W Kentucky due to the pummeling their received at the hands of the Hilltoppers.
Summary
We lean to the Monarchs. It just seems like asking for trouble when both teams are so highly motivated (in theory) to win AND they are playing in an exotic locale. One thing we need to keep in mind is that Old Dominion played a REALLY soft schedule (#140 – Sagarin ratings). E Michigan finished .500 in MAC play BUT they did beat Ohio and Wyoming and quite easily could have beat an NIU team that was playing better football near the end of the season. Old Dominion is in the same area code as those teams.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Over 64.5 if you need to have something going.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES.