HAWAII BOWL PREVIEW – HAWAII vs MTSU
MTSU 7 HAWAII (72)
MEGALOCKS LINE – MTSU -7 Sagarin ratings – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: MTSU 39.5 Hawaii 32.5
The Game
Bowl season has always felt like it starts with the Hawaii Bowl. Beautiful state. Tradition. Often an exciting game. We love it !
MTSU had an 8-4 record and only lost by one point to C-USA champion W Kentucky. And they dropped 77 points to end the season vs FAU in a game in which they did not have a QB. Defense was optional this season. Scoring points was a given. Meanwhile, Hawaii traveled the equivalent of 149 times around the globe during the regular season in what has to be a world record setting travel docket. They survived and pulled off 6 wins (6-7). Their crowning moment was SHOCKING the WORLD winning on the road at Air Force.
The Match-Up
MTSU offense vs Hawaii defense
We have be waiting patiently, along with the rest of the free world, for an announcement regarding the MTSU QB situation. The line is telling us that starter B Stockstill has been given the green light. HC Rick Stockstill eluded to that possibility a while back and we hope that he plays in this game. Stockstill had an excellent 27-5 TD to INT ratio and is the key to the offense. Very smart, very accurate. He can run a little bit but do not think that would be a good idea after collarbone surgery, yo. Then again, legend has it that he wanted to go back into the game when it got busted up. Tougher than a night in prison, this dude. Much like the Tulsa offense, you have to respect the running game as I’Tavius Mathers ran for over 1,500 yards and 16 TDs. WR Richie James is a ridiculously talented player (97, 1463) who will almost assuredly go over the 100 catch and 1,500-yard marks in this game. James also averaged 9.4 yards per rush. Overall, the MTSU offense was ranked #9 in the NCAA. They move fast. They score points.
Hawaii gave up 487 points (!) in their 13 games but did play some decent defense against teams that were average or worse offensively. Sadly, MTSU does not fit into that category. They are going to have a hard time slowing down the Blue Raiders’ offense. Hawaii was ranked #117 in run defense and #118 in pass efficiency defense. Prognosis: lots of points.
Hawaii offense vs MTSU defense
Hawaii can score some points as well. They hit the 30-point mark in seven games this season and proved they could do damage against soft defenses. That is what they will get on December 24th. QB Dru Brown gotta better as the season went along and completed 62% of his passes and threw for 15 TD passes. That included a 5 TD performance in the final game vs UMass. Brown also ran for a 62 yard TD (3 rushing TDs). The running game should do well against the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the MTSU defense as the top-3 RBs combined for 1700+ yards and 17 rushing TDs. That includes our boy Steven LAKALAKA who is the man near the goal line (12 TDs). Senior WR Marcus Kemp is playing in his last collegiate game and had a fine 1,000-yard season. The WR group is going to have a good day against the MTSU defense.
Statistically speaking, the MTSU defense was not a complete disaster considering they finished up ranked #91 and played a more than a few high-powered offenses. The reality is that they just found a way to give up points any time they faced a team with a pulse on offense. The thing is, it does not seem to bother them. That is how they roll. They just plan on outscoring you and they usually succeed.
Motivation / Intangibles
MTSU – Never underestimate the power of the island to turn a mighty team into a pile of steaming you know what. We doubt it will happen in this game but never assume the players will be focused, and frankly, we do not (or would not) blame them one bit. This is an experience of a lifetime and meant to be a reward. Grade – Poor. (does not mean they cannot win 107-24. just saying. not saying. just saying)
Hawaii – Finally a bit of a break from that travel schedule. AND they get a bowl game at home in what has to be considered a successful season for them. Year one of HC Rolovich was probably not supposed to end with a 6-win campaign (4 conference) wins, but yet they are here. Have to be the more motivated team and are obviously comfortable in the surroundings. Grade – Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Hawaii has not won a bowl game since the 2006 – you guessed it – Hawaii Bowl when they beat Arizona St…..The last time we saw the Rainbow Warriors in a bowl game they were getting their teeth kicked in by a Tulsa team that looks very similar to MTSU (62-35) in the 2010 Hawaii Bowl….HC Rick Stockstill is just 1-4 SU in 5 bowl games with the Blue Raiders and they have lost three straight…..Their last bowl win was back in the 2009 New Orleans Bowl when they beat S Miss.
Summary
This game should be fun. #HotTake. Our guess is that both teams just let it rip and see what happens.
Conclusion
Official play: None. (one hit on that collarbone and QB could be out)
Best play on the game: MTSU TT over 39.5. Would play up to 41. It should not matter. The Hawaii team total or game total over would also probably be a safe choice. It is going to keep going up so do not delay IF you like it. Don’t worry about crap like traps or square plays. If you like it – go for it.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES