ARMED FORCES BOWL PREVIEW – LOUISIANA TECH vs NAVY
LOUISIANA TECH 4.5 NAVY (66.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – La Tech -7 Sagarin ratings – Navy -6.5 (stats-based; Navy QB injured)
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisiana Tech 35.5 Navy 31
The Game
Navy gets another shot at grabbing their 10th win of the season as they take on the explosive Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. A really cool contrast in styles ! Navy is coming off a tough loss to Army (yes, it actually happened) whilst the Bulldogs are coming off a loss in the C-USA Title game to JUGGERNAUT Western Kentucky.
Anchors Away ! (Note: yes, that was too easy)
The Match-Up
Louisiana Tech offense vs Navy defense
This should be interesting. La Tech was #5 in the FBS in scoring offense (44 points per game) and were #3 in passing offense. They get to face a Navy defense that struggled all season, and to honest, were absolutely hideous vs the pass. They were ranked #122 (!) in pass efficiency defense just slightly ahead of Texas St and Rice. They were bad on 3rd down defense (#119) and could not get any PENETRATION (#116 sacks, #124 TFL). That is REALLY bad news against an offense like the one La Tech will bring to the table.
QB Ryan Higgins threw for over 4,000 yards (4,208) and had 37 TD passes and only 8 (!) INT in 456 attempts. The Bulldogs sport TWO WR with over 1,400 yards receiving (T Taylor – 1,570; C Henderson 1,406) and when they get bored of passing, they can rely upon RB J Craft who had over 1,000 yards rushing and over 40 receptions.
Prognosis: Points.
Navy offense vs Louisiana Tech defense
Goodness knows we have been wrong before. It just seems unfair to ask a 3rd string QB like Zach Abey to be able to run the offense at an efficient enough pace to keep up with the Bulldogs’ comically explosive offense. Abey has done a decent job of running the football but has struggled throwing the football with 0 TD and 4 INT so far. This is not an indictment of his skills, but rather, just a fact check on what Navy will and will not be able to do in this game. It seems clear to us that the Navy running attack has to be running on ALL cylinders to have a hope of staying competitive in this game. What people forget is that what makes Navy so dangerous is the ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game when opposing defenses focus too much on stopping the run.
That brings us to La Tech. If you cannot throw the ball, it is REALLY difficult to beat this team. The Bulldogs’ pass defense is wretched BUT for the THIRD straight season, the run defense has been pretty good (#2 in C-USA in yards per game allowed AND yards per carry allowed). That past three seasons the Bulldogs have only allowed 118,120 and 134 yards per game on the ground. Yes, Navy is a completely different animal, but with an inexperienced QB and NO RB with over 500 (!!!) yards rushing on the season, it just seems like a tall task for the Midshipmen.
Motivation / Intangibles
La Tech – The Bulldogs did not finish the season on a strong note. Having said that, they already had a spot in the C-USA Title Game sewn up when they lost to S Miss, and they lost to WKU which is no disgrace. HC Skip Holtz has won both of his bowl games with La Tech and they have a shot to win NINE games for the 3rd straight season. Not crazy about their mental state but they go into this game KNOWING they are going to score points. GRADE – Average.
Navy – They lost to Air Force and Army. Down to their 3rd string QB. We NEVER doubt the resolve of these guys but this is a tough spot. GRADE – Average (only because it is NAVY).
MEGA BOWL BITES
La Tech should be able score points every time in the red zone as they have an excellent PK in J Barnes who made 20/25 attempts this season….Navy was only 2/4 from 30 (!!) yards or more….Navy has won 3 straight bowl games and La Tech has won their last two….Something has to give.
Summary
Navy better bring the heat. They are going to need to score a lot of points because their defense has been dreadful this season. Poor defense and a completely one-dimensional offense spells big time trouble to MEGALOCKS INC. Then again, we thought Arkansas St would beat Toledo in week one.
Conclusion
Official play: La Tech -4.5 -106 (would play up to -6.5)
Best play on the game: See above. (LT TT over any number posted would probably work too).
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO