BOCA RATON BOWL PREVIEW – MEMPHIS vs WESTERN KENTUCKY
WKU 5 MEMPHIS (79)
MEGALOCKS LINE – WKU -5 Sagarin ratings – WKU -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: WKU 42 Memphis 37
The Game
Get your popcorn ! There just might be some points scored in this game. Super #HotTake.
Memphis had a fine season under first year HC Mike Norvell fighting to an 8-4 mark in the underrated AAC. They can bag 9+ wins for the third straight season if they can find a way to handle WKU. Speaking of the Hilltoppers, they rifled off 10 wins and their only losses came to Alabama, Vandy (OT) and at La Tech (3 points). They will have to win this bowl game without HC Jeff Brohm and no permanent replacement had been named as we went to press.
The Match-Up
WKU offense vs Memphis defense
This offense is scary good. Here are the point totals from the last 8 games – 50,52,44,59,52,49,45, and 60. Whoa, Nellie. A lot of the defenses they faced in those games were pretty rotten, but to be fair, the Memphis D has been known to give up points as well. QB Mike White threw for over 4,000 yards and was only intercepted 6 times all season (387 attempts). The Hilltoppers boast a great RB (A Wales 1,376, 6.8, 24 TD) and a PAIR of 1,000-yard WR (T Taylor, N Norris) who combined for 29 TD receptions. White should have plenty of time to throw as the Tigers struggled getting PENETRATION this season (9th in AAC in sacks per game and TFL per game).
The Tigers defense was ranked #90 overall in the FBS. Not good when you are facing WKU. The good news is that their pass defense was ranked #26 in the FBS in terms of efficiency and they only allowed 17 TD passes while picking off 15. They are going to have to find a way to force some turnovers because it does not appear that WKU will be forced to punt too many times. That is the other good news. Memphis was +10 in turnover margin this season which ranked #9 in the FBS.
Memphis offense vs WKU defense
The Tigers also possess a really good offense and they are going to have to be razor sharp to keep up with WKU. QB Riley Ferguson was solid completing 64% of his passes and throwing for 28 TD vs 9 INT. The Tigers’ leading rusher is D Dorceus (786, 6.2, 9TD) and their top three rushers all average 5.7 yards per carry or better. Anthony Miller is a legit #1 WR (1,283, 11 TD) and the passing game was ranked #20 overall in the FBS.
This is where it gets interesting. WKU was ranked very highly in C-USA on defense. #1 vs the run. #3 in pass efficiency defense (21 TD 13 INT). #1 in yards per play allowed (5.12). In their last four contests they only allowed 3,21,7 and 6 points. Now, those teams at the back-end of the schedule were pretty disgusting. When the Hilltoppers played offenses closer to the talent level of Memphis they did give up some points (55- La Tech, 43- MTSU). WKU played at a higher level on defense this season than the Tigers, but how will they handle the rise in class in this game ?
Motivation / Intangibles
WKU – HC is gone. Indoor practice facility ? On hold. And they won the C-USA Title. Again. Memphis is a solid team but not the opponent that will get their juices flowing. This seems like a really bad spot from a motivational standpoint. GRADE – POTENTIAL LANDMINE.
Memphis – Solid 8-win campaign. Get to face a conference champion and build for next season. Feels like a good spot for the Tigers. Now they just have to do it on the field. GRADE – Very good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Memphis has 27 wins over the past 3 seasons and are a combined +29 in turnover margin during that span….#Correlation……Memphis has covered their last 6 games vs C-USA opponents…..WKU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference tilts…..WKU’s strength of schedule was rated #121 by the Sagarin methodology….Memphis #73.
Summary
This is one of the tougher games on the bowl card to handicap. It is anybody’s guess how sharp the Hilltoppers are going to be in this game. If they play their A-game they win by 10+. That just does not seem very likely. We lean to WKU based on the match-up, but sadly enough, the game is not played on paper and the intangibles are too much in favor of Memphis for us to make this an official play. Or even small potatoes.
The best move is to consider some type of “over” because this total is inflated but probably still not high enough. Game total and/or team total plays are “square” but will probably get the money if you get down soon. Total could hit 80+ by game time.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Over 79. Small potatoes. (as of press time you can still grab 78, 78.5)
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES