NEW MEXICO BOWL PREVIEW – NEW MEXICO vs UTSA
NEW MEXICO 7 UTSA (63)
MEGALOCKS LINE – New Mexico -6.5 Sagarin ratings – New Mexico -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: New Mexico 35 UTSA 28
The Game
Selfishly, we think this is a great start to bowl season ! We love watching the Lobos incredibly efficient ground attack, and truthfully, are looking forward to seeing UTSA take the field as we have not watched much of their football in 2016.
The Lobos had a fine season finishing up with eight wins, and posting a 7-2 record since October 1st, with their only losses coming to Boise St and the red hot Colorado St Rams. This will be the Lobos 4th trip to the New Mexico game (1-2 record so far) with their only win a 23-0 skunking of Nevada in 2007.
After posting a combined 7-17 SU record the past two seasons, the Roadrunners bagged their 6th win of 2016 in their final contest (Charlotte) and are thrilled to be competing in their FIRST ever bowl game. Kudos to first year HC Frank Wilson.
The Match-Up
New Mexico offense vs UTSA defense
This offense is so entertaining. Here it comes. Try and stop it. The Lobos led the FBS in rushing (361 yards per game !) and are able to strike from anywhere on the field by just running their standard run-based offense. RBs T Gipson and T Owens EACH had over 1,000 yards rushing and R McQuarley was asked to do a lot of the dirty work near the end zone (16 rushing TD). QB L Jordan is an explosive runner but struggles MATRICULATING the ball in the passing game. The good news is that Jordan typically has guys running wide open a lot of the time due to opposing defenses focusing heavily on stopping the run. Backup QB A Apodoca runs the offense very efficiently and is a less explosive runner than Jordan but a more reliable passer. He is crafty and tough.
The Roadrunners finished the season mid-pack in C-USA in rushing defense and were ranked #52 in the FBS. There is no way they can STOP the Lobos for four quarters, BUT as long as they keep the Lobos under their season rushing average, they have a shot to win this game. Play tough in the red zone. Give up no more than 1-2 big passing plays. Not an impossible scenario. The Roadrunners were +4 in turnover margin this season and will have to force some mistakes. MEGALOCKS CONFERENCE USA DEEP INSIDERS will have you know that the Roadrunners have not given up 200+ yards rushing in a game since September. New Mexico brings a whole new level of pain to the table, but the stats suggest there is potential for the Roadrunner defense to keep them in the game.
UTSA offense vs New Mexico defense
In our estimation, the Roadrunners are going to have to score 28+ to win this game. They do not have an explosive offense but did manage to score a lot of points on more than one occasion (55,49,45) in 2016. Having said that, the offense was only ranked #97 in the FBS in total offense. QB D Sturm had an efficient season (18 TD 5 INT) and J Johnson will likely see some time in this one as a change of pace. The Roadrunners boast a solid 1-2 punch at RB (J Williams, J Rhodes) who each had over 750 yards rushing while catching a combined 35 passes. Their top two receivers both average over 16 yards a catch.
The Lobos ranked dead LAST in the Mountain West conference in pass efficiency defense and allowed 8.7 (!) yards an attempt whilst only generating 7 INT. The run defense is pretty good so UTSA is going to have to have a big day in the passing game. Our biggest concern for the Roadrunners is the inability of the offensive line to stop PENETRATION from the opposing defense. They finished #125 in the FBS in sacks per game allowed and #121 in allowing TFL. New Mexico recorded 27 sacks this season (#3 Mountain West) and will be a handful for UTSA in obvious passing situations.
Motivation / Intangibles
New Mexico – This is some chatter among fans that this is a bit of a disappointing match-up. UTSA is not a “name” school (yet) nor are they from a Power 5 conference. However, they are playing at home, and have not tasted the sweetness of a bowl victory since 2007. They are 0-1 under Davie’s watch. GRADE – Average.
UTSA – There is no doubt that these guys are jacked up and will most certainly play like their hair is on fire. Will it help ? It is always a guessing game, but this appears to be one of the stronger motivational plays of the bowl season. GRADE – Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
New Mexico HC Bob Davie is 0-4 SU in bowl games including an 0-3 mark at Notre Dame….Lobos’ games are on a 12-2 run to the over L14….These two teams split a couple of games in 2013 and 2014 with each team winning on the road….the scores were 21-13 UTSA and 21-9 NM….UTSA PK V Falcon was only 2/6 on FGs from 40+ yards…..New Mexico PK J Sanders was 11/12 overall…..Amaze your HOT-TEMPERED CO-WORKER BUDDY with this gem…..New Mexico’s state bird is the ROADRUNNER…..but they are playing the UTSA Roadrunners ?….Like, dude, the other team’s mascot is a roadrunner…..but it is our state bird ? So confusing. <sigh>
Summary
The game looks pretty well lined. UTSA is a tough fade due to motivational factors and the proven ability to outperform the point spread. The Roadrunners were +100ish ATS in 12 games this season and only lost TWO games by more than 3 points ATS compared to the final line (Old Dominion, UTEP).
The tough part about backing the Roadrunners is the fact that they were OUTGAINED during the season in aggregate by almost 300 yards and have issues allowing negative plays on offense. Our gut tells us that the Roadrunners are going to have success on offense with the passing game because New Mexico will have to respect the running backs and scrambling ability of the STURMINATOR at QB.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: UTSA team total over 28 or better.
(Note: Dec 17 – Serious wind in the game: Can get 24. Still worth small potatoes)
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES