DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL PREVIEW – OHIO vs TROY
TROY 3.5 OHIO (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Troy -4 Sagarin ratings – Troy -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Troy 26.25 Ohio 22.75
The Game
Dollar General Bowl. Troy vs Ohio. Bring it.
This promises to be a really good game, if for no other reason than both squads boast good defenses, and they appear to be evenly matched on paper. Ohio makes another bowl (yawn) under the leadership of HC Frank Solich and they only lost to W Michigan by 6 points in the MAC Title game. The will fight you for the table scraps. Troy finished the year on a bit of a downer losing two of their last three contests but still bagged an impressive nine wins in year two of the Neal Brown era. MACtion vs Fun Belt.
The Match-Up
Troy offense vs Ohio defense
The Trojans have a really balanced offense and they managed to score 34 points per game. QB Brandon Silvers spreads the ball around nicely (5 players with 225 yards+) but did throw 10 INT. RB Jordan Chunn is very reliable (1200+ yards rushing; 30 receptions) and will absolutely be the weapon that the Bobcats need to slow down. The good news for Bobcats’ fans is that their run defense was excellent all season (#6 FBS) and they held W Michigan to just over 100 yards rushing. Ohio gave up some yards through the air but they are also one of the best teams in the entire FBS at delivering PENETRATION. They were ranked #1 in the MAC in both sacks and TFL per game. Troy was #1 in sacks allowed (!) in the FBS so this is going to be the key to the game. Can Ohio get pressure ? Ohio made life tough for the Broncos and almost pulled off the upset.
Ohio offense vs Troy defense
The Ohio offense is far from explosive but they will punch you in the mouth for four quarters. QB G Windham has a 12 TD to 4 INT ratio and looked pretty good last game throwing for 3 TDs in the MAC Title game. RB D Brown ran for over 800 yards and averaged over 5 yards a pop. The top two WRs both average over 16 yards per reception (S Smith, P White) and Troy cannot assume that Ohio will just be one-dimensional. Troy was very good vs the run this season (#19 FBS) and also ranked in the top 3 in the Sun Belt in sacks per game and TFL. They do have the capability to shut Ohio down cold but seem to always find a way to give up points.
Motivation / Intangibles
Ohio – Hard to get a read on the Bobcats. They have lost their last two bowl games and probably want to get that taste out of their mouths. However, we are not crazy about them losing the MAC Title game. GRADE – Average.
Troy – We like HC Neal Brown quite a bit but this is his first bowl game. Troy has not played in a bowl game since 2010 (more on that below) and should be geeked up. Ohio is not the name-brand school you wanna face but they are going for a 10-win season. GRADE – Above average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Ohio has to feel pretty good about getting into FG range because PK Louie Zervos set the NCAA freshman record for FGs made (26) and was 6/8 from 40+ yards…..Troy PK R Kay is also solid…Do not see many points being left on the table….Amaze your PAROLE OFFICER with this gem…..Troy last played in a bowl game in 2010….their opponent….?……OHIO…..Troy was a 48-21 winner.
Summary
Tough game to call. The game is being played in Mobile, Alabama which will definitely make it feel like more of a home game to the Trojans. Ohio is really scrappy, but HC Solich is only 4-8 SU in 12 career bowl games including a 2/7 mark with the Bobcats. Spread feels about right to us although the upside appears to be with Troy.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Under 49.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES