AUTONATION CURE BOWL PREVIEW – UCF vs ARKANSAS ST
UCF 6 ARKANSAS ST (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – UCF -6 Sagarin ratings – UCF -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: UCF 27.5 Arkansas St 21.5
The Game
“The memories will be so thick you will have to brush them away with your fingers.” – Moonlight Graham, Field of Dreams.
That may not be the EXACT quote from the timeless classic, but the UCF Golden Knights stay home in Orlando for bowl season and will play at the old “Citrus Bowl”‘ where they played home games from 1979-2006. A walk down old Memory Lane. This has been a really good season for the Golden Knights rebounding from last season’s 0-12 DEBACLE and finishing up at 6-6. That is a nice accomplishment for this group and first year HC Scott Frost.
The Red Wolves did not have the offense of recent seasons but still managed to bag a share of the Sun Belt title after starting the season 0-4. They finished up winning 7 of their final 8 games and are playing their best football of the campaign.
The Match-Up
UCF offense vs Arkansas St defense
The Golden Knights struggled on offense this season (#9 rushing, #10 passing in AAC) but still found a way to generate 20+ points in every game other than during the bruising trip to Michigan. The running game was held to under 100 yards in 5 of their last 7 contests (!!) and that is not a good sign heading into a bowl game vs a stingy run defense (#3 Sun Belt YPC allowed). The Red Wolves pass defense improved greatly during the latter part of the season and face a raw QB in M Milton who has ability but is also prone to making mistakes (9 TD 7 INT). Overall, we do not see a ton of production coming from this offense as they do not have a RB with over 500 yards rushing and only one WR with over 500 yards receiving. UCF is another bowl team that was OUTGAINED during the course of the season (-240 yards).
A potential major problem we see for the UCF offense is the PENETRATION of the Arkansas St defense. The Red Wolves were ranked #1 in the Sun Belt in sacks per game AND tackles for loss per game. On the flipside, UCF allowed too many sacks and were ranked #12 in the AAC in TFL allowed per contest. Arkansas St allowed less than 300 Y offense in each of their final 3 games.
Arkansas St offense vs UCF defense
It appears as though the Red Wolves are going to win or lose the game based on the arm of QB Justice Hansen. The ground game has not been good enough this season, and while UCF got steamrolled by some good rushing teams (Tulsa, USF) we do not think that the Red Wolves have the MINERALS to do the same. The tandem of W Wand and J White have been decent but neither average more than 5 yards a carry. The passing game is void of any clear stars but Hansen does a good job of spreading the ball around (6 players 275 yards+).
UCF has a couple of distinct advantages on paper. First and foremost, they have a DISRUPTIVE FORCE in LB Shaquem Griffin who recorded 11 sacks and 19 TFL during the regular season. QB J Hansen does not have a lot of mobility (read: none) and is going to be in trouble if he faces a lot of 3rd and long situations. The Knights were fantastic on 3rd downs (#7 FBS) while the Red Wolves were horrible (#126 !) which is the other factor that makes us think UCF can handle the Arkansas St offense.
Motivation / Intangibles
UCF – They are playing in Orlando. Essentially a home game. Is that good or bad (distraction, not business ?). Teams with a first year HC do not typically come out flat in the first bowl game. Home gamers can research that theory. GRADE – Average.
Arkansas St – Arkansas St is not a very reliable team to back as most of you know. The intangibles are a bit confusing in this one for the Red Wolves, but if there is one thing we know, the guys should play hard as HC Anderson has seen his team blown to bits in both previous bowl games. They may get outcoached, but it is hard to imagine a brutal effort. Added bonus ? The Red Wolves do not have to play in the GoDaddy bowl for the 950th time. GRADE – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Arkansas St played the #115 ranked schedule according to the Sagarin ratings but did bag two wins against bowl teams (S Alabama, Troy)…..Amaze your STRANGELY ATTRACTIVE POOL BOY with this factoid….While we need to verify the authenticity of this gem….it appears that UCF was 6-0 vs non-bowl teams and a frustrating 0-6 vs BOWL TEAMS…..Needless to say this would be their best win of the year should they pull it off.
Summary
A bit of a dilemma. This feels like it has the potential for a low scoring SNOT BUBBLER, but we try and stray from playing unders during bowl season even though we normally like them during the regular season. If one team gets hot early these bowl games can get out of control.
Having said that, that is probably the best play on this game. We would caution playing the favorite given the way the Red Wolves defense has been playing. We are also leery of backing the dog other than for a small ML play as Arkansas St can rack up 20 penalites and 5 turnovers in the blink of an eye.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Under any number 48 or better.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES