BELK BOWL PREVIEW – ARKANSAS vs VIRGINIA TECH
VIRGINIA TECH 7 ARKANSAS (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Virginia Tech -5.5 Sagarin ratings – Virginia Tech -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Virginia Tech 34 Arkansas 27
The Game
WOO PIG SOOIE !
GOBBLE GOBBLE !
The Razorbacks finished up a disappointing 7-5 campaign with a loss to Missouri in their final game of the regular season. It was an up and down season with alternating wins and losses since late September. A win over a really good Hokies team will set the momentum going in the right direction for 2017. Virginia Tech made it to the ACC Title Game in their first year under new HC Justin Fuente and gave Clemson a good fight before losing 42-35. ACC vs SEC.
We can NEVER get enough BELK, whatever that is. Let’s roll !!
The Match-Up
Virginia Tech offense vs Arkansas defense
Hokies’ QB Jerod Evans had a great season and seems to be a fine fit for what they want to do on offense. Evans threw for over 3,300 yards and had a 27-7 TD to INT ratio. He was also the teams leading rusher (759, 10 TD). The running game outside of the QB was pretty inconsistent this season and the Hokies did most of their damage MATRICULATING in the passing game with one of the most underrated group of weapons in the FBS. Cam Phillips and Isaiah Ford combined for over 1,900 yards receiving and 12 TDs. Bucky Hodges (6-7 245) is a nightmare match-up for pretty much any defense on the planet. Virginia Tech should have no problems moving the ball through the air against the Razorbacks’ secondary. The question is, can the Hokies play a relatively clean game ? They were #127 (!) in the FBS in fumbles lost and are no strangers to making ill-timed mistakes.
The good news for Virginia Tech is that the Razorbacks defense was poor for most of the season. They finished up #94 vs the run and #107 in 3rd down defense. They did not get much PENETRATION (#10 SEC sacks per game). While it is true that they only allowed 10 TD passes, they did not play many teams with strong passing attacks. Arkansas can create some problems if they mix up their looks and force some negative plays. Virginia Tech’s running game is pretty much the QB at this point.
Arkansas offense vs Virginia Tech defense
The Razorbacks definitely have the weapons to stay in this game. QB Austin Allen threw a few too many interceptions (23-12 TD to INT) but was excellent at times and showed the ability to carve up anyone including Alabama. The Hogs also boast a 1,300-yard rusher in Rawleigh Williams and have more than enough balance to give the Hokies some fits. Overall, the Hokies’ defensive stats look pretty good, but they did struggle vs teams with good offenses (Notre Dame, Tennessee, Pittsburgh) and the Hogs fits in that category. A good running game and three WRs with over 500 yards. And a TE who averages over 11 yards a reception (J Sprinkle). Similar to the Hokies, the Razorbacks have no problem turning the ball over and will have to keep the mistakes to a minimum. The YUUUGE opportunity for Arkansas is that they are #2 in the FBS in time of possession. Convert on 3rd downs and grind them down. That is the recipe.
Motivation / Intangibles
Virginia Tech – Coming off a loss in a conference title game is always a tough read. We might feel better if they were playing in a more prestigious bowl game and/or against a tougher opponent. GRADE – Below average.
Arkansas – They can play the “underdog card”. Us against the world. Blah Blah. There is no doubt they want to get the taste of the Missouri loss out of their mouths and build for next season. A bit inconsistent for our tastes this season. GRADE – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Arkansas has been a wrecking ball in their two bowl performances under HC Bret Bielema…..2-0 is the ultimate small sample size but it certainly cannot be a bad thing…..This is the first ever match-up between these two schools…..VT HC J Fuente was 1-0 in bowl games with Memphis and would love to keep the momentum going into next season with a win vs an SEC team….MEGALOCKS SEC DEEP INSIDERS made us aware that Bret Bielema is 25-25 SU as the Arkansas HC….Have to think he will pull any strings necessary to get the win so he does not have to listen the entire off-season about his “25-26” below .500 overall mark.
Summary
This feels like a back-and-forth evenly matched game. As well as QB Jerod Evans has played, he is pretty much a one-man show, albeit a very good one. We like looking at the Hogs as underdogs and feel that their balanced offense can keep them within the 7 point number. The Hokies defense can be exposed.
Conclusion
Official play: Arkansas +7 -110. (do not play at +6.5 unless for small potatoes)
Best play on the game: See above.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES