HEART OF DALLAS BOWL PREVIEW – ARMY vs NORTH TEXAS
ARMY 10 NORTH TEXAS (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Army -9.5 Sagarin ratings – Army -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Army 29.5 North Texas 19.5
The Game
The 27th of December bowl slate starts off with a bang. Army comes into this game off a YUUUGE win over arch-rival Navy and are playing in their first bowl game since 2010 (win over SMU) and only their SECOND bowl game this century. Whoa. Meanwhile, North Texas finished 5-7 but got into this bowl game on the virtue of academics when there were not enough 6-win teams to fill things out. This is the ONLY bowl rematch from the regular season (North Texas won 35-18 on October 22nd thanks in large part to seemingly 78,000 Army turnovers) so let’s DO THIS !
The Match-Up
Army offense vs North Texas defense
The #2 rushing offense in the NCAA meets the #108 run defense. Hmm. Army rolled for 302 rushing yards in their earlier meeting with North Texas BUT it was on 67 carries (4.5 a pop). That is about as good as you go do against the triple option, so make no mistake, it is not unthinkable that the Mean Green can make Army work for everything that they get in this game. Army does not MATRICULATE in the passing game often, but when they do, they prefer to go deep to legit target WR Edgar Poe who averages over 21 yards a reception. However, Bradshaw would be best to stick to the running game as he had 4 TD vs 9 INT during the regular season. If Army just sticks to what they do best they should be able to salt the game away by the fourth quarter. The Black Knights are really good on 3rd downs whilst North Texas is pretty bad.
North Texas offense vs Army defense
Whether the Mean Green start QB Mason Fine or Alec Morris it will probably not matter a whole lot. Both QBs, and the passing game in general, were pretty horrid during the regular season. It is all going to rest on the shoulders of RB Jeffrey Wilson who could hit the 1,000-yard mark in this contest (855 yards, 13 TD). Wilson had a big game vs Army the first time around with 160 yards on the ground and 3 TDs. North Texas will have to run the ball well and hit a couple big plays in the passing game to have a shot. Oh, and win the turnover battle. Not impossible.
The most underrated aspect of the Army team this season was their defense. While it is true that they played a comically soft schedule (#130 per Sagarin ratings) they did finish in #4 (!) in the FBS in total defense and took care of business.
Motivation / Intangibles
Army – The Black Knights are off a YUUUUUUUUGE win vs Navy. Normally, that would be a red flag for us, but we usually give the benefit of the doubt to a service academy. As noted earlier, Army has only been to one other bowl game this century and are full of confidence. Knowing that they lost their previous meeting adds theoretical motivation. GRADE – Excellent.
North Texas – Everyone is telling them how bad they are and how they do not deserve to be there. While that may be true, that can also add some motivational spice to the mix. It took a bunch of turnovers in October, but the Mean Green know they can beat this team. GRADE – Very good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Army outscored their opponents 351-227 while the Mean Green were outscored 386-291…..The last time North Texas was in a bowl game ?…..well it was THE HEART OF DALLAS bowl back in 2013 when they delivered a 2498572485798347 STAR MEGALOCKS winner beating UNLV 36-14.
Summary
It is hard to come up with a believable scenario where North Texas wins this game. Then again, that was the case earlier this season, and they found a way to win OUTRIGHT as 17+ point underdogs. Keep in mind that Army did lose to Buffalo.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Under 49. Would play down to 48 for small potatoes.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO