CACTUS BOWL PREVIEW – BOISE ST vs BAYLOR
BOISE ST 7.5 BAYLOR (66.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Boise St -8.5 Sagarin ratings – Boise St -12.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Boise St 37 Baylor 29.5
The Game
This has the makings of a really fun game to watch. Baylor is pretty much always “must-see TV” even though they struggled mightily down the stretch. They lost their last six games of the season to finish at 6-6 but did give West Virginia all they could handle in the season finale. Boise St had another (yawn) 10-win campaign but this time came up short in terms of making the conference title game. The Broncos had a record of 10-2 and had close losses to Wyoming (lost on a safety late in game) and Air Force (Falcons goal line stand). GET CHO POPCONE !!
The Match-Up
Boise St offense vs Baylor defense
The Broncos had another fine season on offense finishing up with a 3,000-yard passer, a 1,600 yard RB and TWO 1,000-yard receivers. QB Brett Rypien only threw 6 INT all year and averaged well over 9 yards per attempt. The man to watch is the McWEAPON Jeremy McNichols who ran for 1,663 yards and 23 TDs. He also caught 32 balls and recorded 4 TDs receiving. The Broncos WR tandem of T Sperbeck and C Wilson combined for over 2,200 yards and 19 TDs. To say Baylor is going to have a lot to worry about it an understatement.
The good news for Baylor fans is that they play in the Big 12 and see all kinds of comically productive offenses. While it is true that they struggled in the second half of the season, they finished up with a good game at West Virginia. They finished up 51st in pass efficiency defense which does not sound great, but we feel good about the competition they faced at the QB position. It will be a tough task, but they just need to make enough stops to keep them in the game.
Baylor offense vs Boise St defense
The Bears look to be in pretty good shape at QB next season as freshman Zach Smith has played very well. The extra bowl practices will only help. Baylor also has a balanced offense and finished up ranked #13th in the FBS in rushing and #28 in passing (#5 overall). Even the departure of S Linwood, the running game is still in excellent shape with T Williams (945, 11 TD) and J Hasty. The WR corps is very good and KD Cannon should easily surpass the 1,000-yard mark (989) in this game.
The Boise St defense was decent this season (22.7 points per game) but did their best work against teams with horrible offenses. They are not going to get blown to bits in this game, but Baylor is definitely going to have some success. Our biggest concern for the Broncos is their ability to force takeaways. MEGALOCKS BOISE ST DEEP INSIDERS have alerted us to the fact that they were ranked #125 (!) in fumbles recovered (2) and #112 in interceptions.
Motivation / Intangibles
Boise St – The Broncos can pretty much always be counted on to give a solid effort. They get a Power 5 team in Baylor. HC Bryan Harsin is 2-0 in bowl games with the Broncos. GRADE – Very good.
Baylor – This is not as obvious as it may seem. So much swirling around the Baylor program these days, but we really like new HC Matt Rhule and think he has already instilled some positive energy. Now KEEP IN MIND – Jim Grobe is coaching the bowl game and this is in all likelihood his LAST GAME as a head coach. Regardless of what has transpired, it is hard to believe that the Bears will lay a complete egg. They would love to end the 6-game skid. S Linwood leaving the team can only be a good thing. GRADE – Debatable. We say “sneaky good”.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Baylor had one of the most impressive bowl games in recent times last season when they had no QB and just decided to run random players from the QB position and tally 645 yards rushing vs UNC…..one for the ages…….This game will be played at Chase Field home of the Arizona Diamondbacks……From the meaningless yet intriguing stats department – The Big 12 is 11-3 SU in this bowl game and Baylor is 16-4 SU against current Mtn West schools……They have also never won a game in the state of Arizona (0-3) so I guess TREND GUY is in a bind.
Summary
Tough game to call. We can see both sides of this game. Baylor is a guessing game in terms of where their mindset will be for this contest. And we doubt anyone has ever made a mint backing teams off six straight losses. The time off will help.
Boise is the better team. We just worry that they beat up on the slugs and played close games with pretty much everyone else. Margins of victory included 1,3,5 and 11 vs decent teams.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Baylor TT over 29.5 (would play up to 30)
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES