FOSTER FARMS BOWL PREVIEW – INDIANA vs UTAH
UTAH 7 INDIANA (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah -8 Sagarin ratings – Utah -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah 30.5 Indiana 23.5
The Game
It’s a Big 10 vs PAC 12 match-up in the Foster Farms Bowl as Utah takes on the Hoosiers in Santa Clara, California. Home of YOUR San Francisco 49ers. Hopefully, this will not be as boring and predictable as an NFL game.
Indiana slithered into the postseason in the last game of the season beating rival Purdue 26-24. That gave the Hoosiers their 6th win and made them officially bowl-eligible. The Hoosiers only beat one bowl team all season long (Maryland) but did play some pretty good teams very tough including Nebraska and Michigan. HC Kevin Wilson resigned after the season and the new HC is former DC Tom Allen who orchestrated a fine job with the Indiana defense in 2016. It showed up in the stats (#41 total defense FBS) and their improvement was clearly visible when watching their games. The good old EYE TEST. (Note – EYE TEST not as cool as X FACTOR but very close)
The Utes finished up 8-4 and lost their final two games of the season. The Oregon game was a DEBACLE, but keep in mind that Utah lost all four games by a TD or less. We thought it was a mistake when Utah was not listed as playing in the Las Vegas Bowl, but as it turned out, the internet was correct !
The Match-Up
Utah offense vs Indiana defense
The Utah offense had the potential to be an absolute STEAMING MESS until RB Joe Williams returned after a brief “retirement”. All Williams did was rush for between 97 and 332 (!) yards in each of the Utes’ final six games. Those games included starts vs Colorado and Washington. Williams has provided the spark that they needed. The passing game is ok, but QB Troy Williams only completed 53% of his passes. The WR group is decent, led by senior Tim Patrick, but they are definitely somewhat limited in the passing game.
Indiana’s defense was pretty good and the main reason they are in a bowl game this year. The Hoosiers run defense has particularly strong down the stretch but are going to be tested big time by the Utes who will just keep coming at you with RB J Williams. If they can force Utah into a lot of 3rd-long and 3rd-medium they have a shot to stay in this game. If the run game starts working this puppy is probably over. They need to force Utah to win via the pass. Easier said than done.
Indiana offense vs Utah defense
The Hoosiers have a shot in this one, but QB Richard Lagow is going to have to keep the INTs to a minimum. More than one and it is going to be a problem. Lagow had 6 games in which he threw for 250+ yards and tallied 18 TDs on the season. He also tossed 16 INTs. Utah can absolutely be beat in the secondary but the issue is getting the pass off before a member of SACK LAKE CITY gets to YOU. The Utes were #1 in the PAC 12 in sacks per game and TFL per game. DE Hunter Dimick led the way with 14.5 sacks. Indiana had trouble allowing PENETRATION this season and Lagow is not very mobile. We can do the math, and I am sure you can too. The running game features 1,000 yard man D Redding but the Utes are pretty solid up front. We should know early on in this game if the Hoosiers have a shot of MATRICULATING down the field and are not taking a lot of sacks and hurries.
Motivation / Intangibles
Utah – The Utes are closer to home and do not have to go to Las Vegas again. They take on a Big 10 opponent but not the “name” school that sparks a ton of interest. Having said that, the Utes SHOW UP in bowl games (more on that below) and have done very well no matter the opponent. GRADE – Above Average.
Indiana – Another chance at a bowl victory ! (ALSO, more on that below) The Hoosiers will be giving it their all as their program does not have a storied tradition of bowl participation or success. We give them credit for getting to another one. The distraction of the head coach resigning has been a bit of a “whirlwind” according to new head man Tom Allen. GRADE – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Utah is an amazing 16-4 in bowl games (!) and HC K Whittingham is 8-1…..This is Tom Allen’s first game as a HC…..Speaking of Indiana…..The Hoosiers are 3-7 all time in bowl games and have not won since the epic 24-0 Copper Bowl win over Baylor in 1991….Little did the MEGALOCKS POSSE know way back at the 1990 PEACH BOWL (remember Fulton County Stadium ?) that after the Indiana loss to Auburn they would only win one more bowl game over the next 25 years…..WACKY…..Utah has a YUUUGE edge in special teams and are #1 in net punting.
Summary
It is really tough to roll with the Hoosiers. The coaching edge is tremendous. The Utes are +7 in turnovers and the Hoosiers are -7. The spread, of course, is always the great equalizer. Would have been a bit more interested at a number less than 7. The total looks about right to us.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Utah -7 or better.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO