ST PETERSBURG BOWL PREVIEW – MIAMI OHIO vs MISSISSIPPI ST
MISSISSIPPI ST 14 MIAMI OHIO (58)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Mississippi St -16.5 Sagarin ratings – Mississippi St -13.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Mississippi St 36 Miami Ohio 22
The Game
Whoa. The fun starts early on December 26th with an 11:00 am start in the St Petersburg Bowl. For those of you new to the bowl season extravaganza, this game is not being played in Russia. It’s Florida, yo.
This game features a couple of teams that each got here in unusual fashion. Miami Ohio started the season at 0-6 and then rattled off SIX straight wins to finish up at 6-6. While it is true that the competition was a bit soft (two bowl teams – E Michigan, C Michigan), ANY team that shows that kind of fight colors us impressed.
Meanwhile, Mississippi St started the season in grand fashion losing at home to South Alabama and finished up with a disappointing 5-7 mark. They found there way into this game due to impressive academics when not enough 6-win teams were available. So in a way, Mississippi St is comparable to North Texas this season.
The Match-Up
Mississippi St offense vs Miami Ohio defense
Good news for Bulldogs’ fans. They have found a QB in our opinion. Nick Fitzgerald just needs a bit more polish as a passer and will be an absolute handful for SEC defenses as soon as next season. This year he threw 21 TD passes and rushed for over 1,200 yards at 7 yards a pop. RB Aeris Williams started to emerge late in the season with two games of 140+ rushing yards in November. The passing game features a legit #1 in Fred Ross (873, 12 TD) and a good #2 in D Gray (691, 17.7). We feel like the Bulldogs could be set up to have a fine day on offense if they have their heads in the game. If.
Miami Ohio has a good defense and that is what makes this game a bit tricky to handicap. The Redhawks were ranked #26 in the FBS in total defense and #2 in the MAC. They were equally stingy against the run and the pass when you dig into things. They held WKU to 31. E Michigan to 15. The Chips to 17. They did not play W Michigan or Toledo. We are concerned about their ability to get PENETRATION as they were ranked in the bottom half of the FBS in sacks per game and TFL per game. Fitzgerald is going to be the most dynamic player (in our estimation) that they have faced this season.
Miami Ohio offense vs Mississippi St defense
The Redhawks also appear to be set up at QB for next season. Gus Ragland was spewing SUPAH HOT FYRE down the stretch leading the team to six straight wins and finishing up with a 15-0 (!!) TD to INT ratio. The running game also got working late in the season when opposing teams had to respect the threat of a forward pass. They rattled off 200+ rushing yards in four straight games until the season finale when GUS had to drive the BUS and throw for 380 in a win over Ball St. Assessment ? Balanced. Can cause Miss St some trouble if they are sleepwalking through this one. This is particularly true when thinking about the Redhawks’ underrated receiving corps.
The Bulldogs’ defense was pretty bad this season to say the least. They were ranked #110 in the FBS and were particularly horrible defending the pass (more on that later). The good news is that the Redhawks’ ground game should be something they can handle, and the Bulldogs are almost certain to get PENETRATION as Miami was #122 in the FBS in sacks per game allowed. It does not take a handicapping wizard to figure that they will have an athletic advantage up front. We do think that Miami can make things happen in the passing game if they can keep Ragland from getting destroyed on a regular basis.
Motivation / Intangibles
Miami Ohio – On a roll. Made a bowl game. And now have a FREEROLL game vs an SEC team. No doubt, this will be an all-timer for the school if they win this game, and who does NOT like being a hero on a college campus ? GRADE – Excellent.
Mississippi St – They finished up with their biggest win of the season crushing rival Ole Miss. “See you guys next year ! Oh wait. We have to play again ? Against who ?” GRADE – Poor.
MEGA BOWL BITES
HC Dan Mullen is 4-2 in bowl games at Miss St including last season’s Belk Bowl triumph over NC State…..This is HC Chuck Martin’s first bowl game as a HC….The Redhawks last appeared in a bowl game back in 2010 when they beat MTSU in the GoDaddy.com Bowl……Amaze your local PASTRY CHEF with this gem….Mississippi St was ranked dead last in the SEC in pass defense and along the way allowed 31 TD passes….Nobody in the SEC allowed more than 20 (Kentucky)…..Dudes ?
Summary
We really have to love both sides of the equation when playing a double digit favorite. Mississippi St has the talent to make this one ugly, but will they do it ? Probably. Hard to say for sure. If Miami gets a sniff early on and does not get buried this could get really interesting. Our biggest worry for Miami is containing QB Fitzgerald who shredded Ole Miss to pieces and was a major pain overall for opposing teams most of the season. Miami had trouble handling Ball St’s dual threat QB in their final game. This is going to be a whole lot more difficult. Our gut tells us that the Mississippi St ground game does some serious work.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Miss St TT over 36.5. Play up to 37.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO