HOLIDAY BOWL PREVIEW – MINNESOTA vs WASHINGTON ST
WASHINGTON ST 9.5 MINNESOTA (61.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Washington St -8.5 Sagarin ratings – Washington St -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington St 35.5 Minnesota 26
The Game
Well, we have a game. Minnesota Gopher players ended their recent protest and the show will go on at the Holiday Bowl. There are a couple of 8-win teams at the table with very contrasting styles. Washington St will pick you to pieces with star QB Luke Falk. The Gophers will pound you with the running game and play solid defense. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
Washington St offense vs Minnesota defense
This feels like a really good match-up for the Cougars. Luke Falk and company get to throw at a Gophers’ secondary that was next to last in the Big 10 in pass defense and only picked off 8 passes all season. Minnesota will be without a couple of defensive back that would have played in this game (suspension) so it appears on the surface that the Cougars could have a field day through the air.
The good news for Minnesota is that they are excellent at getting PENETRATION (3rd in Big 10 in sacks per game and TFL per game) and Falk is a sitting duck back there when teams decide to bring the heat. Minnesota can stay in this game if they find a way to get pressure on Falk and force a couple of fumbles or INTs. The Washington St run game is improved but will not be able to do much against the Minnesota run defense (#20 FBS).
Minnesota offense vs Washington St defense
Many teams play Minnesota and think, “How bad could it be ? They seem pretty boring.” And then they look at the scoreboard in the 2nd half and wonder what in the SAM HILL is going on. Minnesota will come at you with a couple of good RBs (S Brooks, R Smith) who combined for over 1,600 yards and 20 TDs on the ground. When QB Mitch Leidner was not throwing interceptions, he was doing a great job of running and keeping the chains moving. He had 10 rushing TDs. They only have one weapon to speak of in the passing game (WR D Wolitarsky – 61-787, 5 TD) but he comes up with a lot of big catches for the Gophers. The Washington St secondary can definitely be had.
Once again, it does not feel like the ideal match-up for Minnesota. Washington St does a much better job of stopping the run than defending solid passing attacks. The Cougars do not face smashmouth teams like this often in the PAC 12, but keep in mind, they did lay a beating on Stanford earlier this season.
Motivation / Intangibles
Washington St – Oh that KOOKY Mike Leach. You just never know what to expect with this team. Can they get geeked up to play the Gophers ? Hard to say. GRADE – Below Average.
Minnesota – This is a fun one. Players threatened to boycott the game. Now they are playing. Do they lay down or do they play like their hair is on fire ? Minnesota won the Quick Lane Bowl last year (C Michigan) but this is a pretty big step up in class. We like the fact that HC T Claeys had the players’ backs as the potential DEBACLE was unfolding. GRADE – Unknown (guessing above average).
MEGA BOWL BITES
Minnesota definitely has the edge in the PK department…..E Carpenter was 21/23 on the season including an impressive 9/9 from 40+ yards…..Wash St PK E Powell was just 7/13 (!) and did not make a 3-pointer from 40+ yards all season……The Cougars come into this game following two disappointing losses….The Gophers barfed away a lead at Wisconsin in the final contest of the regular season……Amaze your ETHICALLY-CHALLENGED STOCK BROKER PAL with this gem….Washington St won 8 games this season but only TWO were vs bowl teams (Idaho, Stanford) and both of those wins came in the first half of the season…….Minnesota did slightly better with three wins over bowl teams…..Colorado St, Maryland and Northwestern.
Summary
This should be a popular one for THEY ARE GONNA KILL EM GUY. The match-up looks pretty good. The spread is also a bit inflated IMO. The mindset of the Gophers makes this a tough game to play. You can make the argument for a blowout win for Wash St or a SHOCK THE WORLD moment for the Gophers.
Minnesota lost close games to Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. They also lost in OT at Penn St. The Gophers are scrappy, and it took until the last game of the season for them to actually lose a game by 10+ points (Wisconsin 31-17) and it took 178 interceptions by QB Leidner in the 2nd half to make it happen.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Minnesota +10 or better for small potatoes. (it is currently +10 at 5D; most other shops have it at +9.5. We think it will settle at 10+)
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES