INDEPENDENCE BOWL PREVIEW – NC STATE vs VANDERBILT
NC STATE 4 VANDERBILT (44)
MEGALOCKS LINE – NC State -3.5 Sagarin ratings – NC State -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: NC State 24 Vanderbilt 20
The Game
This feels like it has the makings of a very competitive game. Both teams showed a lot of fight to get to a bowl game. The Wolfpack upset the Tar Heels on the road in their final game in a 8297403 STAR MEGALOCKS winner to get the magical sixth win. The Commodores beat Ole Miss and Tennessee to close out the season to get to 6-6. SEC vs ACC. Let’s goooooo !
The Match-Up
NC State offense vs Vanderbilt defense
The Wolfpack offense is centered around RB M Dayes who tallied over 1,100 rushing yards this season to go along with 31 receptions. “Slash” weapon J Samuels had 6 rushing TDs and 49 receptions. QB R Finley did a decent job with 60% completions and 15 TD passes, but to be fair, the passing game did struggle a bit more as the season went along. The Wolfpack feature five players with 400+ yards receiving and make it difficult to know what is coming next. Overall, they are a balanced, but not explosive offense. And they are not afraid to use TRICKERATION as the Tar Heels found out on November 25th.
Number one red zone defense ? Alabama ? Florida ? Michigan ? Lamar Jackson ? No my friends, it is the stop unit of YOUR Vanderbilt Commodores. Vandy gave up 411 yards per game this season despite having one of the best defenders in all of college football (LB Zach Cunningham) creating devastation and havoc (119 tackles, 16.5 TFL). This is why handicapping is so difficult. Can we count on the Commodores to shut the door yet again once the Wolfpack get in the red zone ? The good news for Vandy fans is that the Wolfpack were one of the worst offensive teams in the red zone (#118) so we have a DOUBLE WHAMMY situation. The Commodores allowed 165 yards per game on the ground and only picked of 5 passes all season. We have a feeling that NC State will be able to move the ball and it in fact WILL come down to how they execute in the red zone. They will most likely need to score in the low-mid 20s to win this game.
Vanderbilt offense vs NC State defense
Well. The #108 offense goes up against one of the best fronts in the FBS (#5 rushing defense). Not an ideal match-up. There is hope. The offense started to roll near the end of the season scoring 83 points in their last two games vs Ole Miss and Tennessee. Of course, those teams have awful defenses and one or both of those squads had essentially quit. But, facts are facts. RB R Webb is a big time weapon at RB (1,172 rushing yards, 12 TD) and QB Kyle Shurmur channeled his inner JAY CUTLER with big time improvement down the stretch. The question becomes, what can he do vs a really good DL ? There is gonna be some heat, and the Commodores were 12th in the SEC in sacks allowed. The passing game does not have any clear-cut stars, but much like the Wolfpack, they are a decent all around group. Overall, Vandy boasts 5 players with 250+ receiving yards. We hear from time to time about the weak NC State secondary, but looking at their results, it is hard to make a case for that argument. They held Clemson to 24 (OT) and the Seminoles to 24. They only allowed more than 30 points twice in 12 games.
Motivation / Intangibles
NC State – A tough read. NC State has to be happy to make a bowl game. Then again, they did not draw a “name” opponent and are not 100% thrilled to be in Shreveport for the holidays. GRADE – Below average.
Vanderbilt – The Commodores are always jacked up to be in a bowl game. YOUNG SPARKIES out there may not realize it, but Vandy has only played in 7 (!) bowl games in school history (4-3 record). This is HC Derek Mason’s first kick at the bowl cat as a HC and believe that they will play like their hair is on fire. GRADE – Very good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Amaze your local SONIC DEEP FRY SUPERVISOR with these gems…..NC State is just 1-8 SU L9 vs the SEC with their last win coming in the Peach Bowl (Jan 1, 1995) against Mississippi St……and MEGALOCKS NC STATE DEEP INSIDERS tell us that the 1975 win over Florida (an epic 8-7 battle) is still the stuff of legends….the HC that day ? Lou Holtz………..NC St has split their two bowl appearances under HC Dave Doeren……Vandy games are 18-6-2 to the under L26…….Vandy has won 3 of their last 4 bowl appearances……WHOA….If this match-up seems familiar – it is because IT IS FAMILIAR…..NC State and Vandy hooked up in the 2012 Music City Bowl and the Commodores walked away with a 2-TD victory 38-24……Vandy has a yuuuuuuge edge in the FG department if it comes down to that late in the game.
Summary
We still need to think about this bad boy. It feels like there is a play in here somewhere.
NC State could have (should have ?) beat Clemson and almost beat Florida St. No doubt they are a handful when they are bringing the A game. Regardless of how it happened, Vanderbilt DID in fact beat GEORGIA, TENNESSEE AND OLE MISS. You can poo poo those wins away but they happened. They also only lost to Florida and Auburn by 7 points. It is hard to imagine a scenario where NC St just rolls them up. It seems as though it will come down to the passing game of Vandy and how motivated the Wolfpack are for this game.
Conclusion
Official play: Vanderbilt TT over 19.5 -115 (-110 is available out there; will use -115 for official purposes) (play up to 20)
NOTE – OFFICIAL LINE FOR RECORD KEEPING CHANGED TO WORSE LINE OF OVER 20 -115 AS PER EMAIL SENT OUT 1PM DEC 26. IT MOVED WITHIN MINUTES OF SENDING OUT EMAIL. IF YOU GOT -19.5 GREAT. IF NOT – 20 IS STILL WIDELY AVAILABLE.
Best play on the game: We like the TT over, Vandy and the game total over. The TT over seems like the smartest of the three plays but you never know !
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES