PINSTRIPE BOWL PREVIEW – PITTSBURGH vs NORTHWESTERN
PITTSBURGH 5.5 NORTHWESTERN (65.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pittsburgh -4 Sagarin ratings – Pittsburgh -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Pittsburgh 35.5 Northwestern 30
The Game
It’s an A-BOMB for A-ROD !!!
Yankee Stadium plays host to a couple of teams that can put points on the board. Actually, three teams if you include the Pitt defense as its own team.
The Panthers were sneaky good all season long. They gave up 38,000 points but still managed to finish up 8-4 and beat TWO conference champs in Penn St and Clemson. For good measure they decided to hang 76 on Syracuse in their final game. Northwestern was a bit disappointing this season but still managed to finesse their way into a bowl game at 6-6.
The Match-Up
Pittsburgh offense vs Northwestern defense
The Panthers can do whatever they want. They scored 28+ in every game this season for a reason. They finished up #26 in the FBS in rushing thanks in large part to the running of James Conner (1,060, 16 TD). WR Q Henderson is also a devastating option in the running game who averaged 10.3 (!) yards per carry. The passing game is deadly efficient with QB Nathan “Jake” Peterman throwing for 26 TDs and only 6 INTs. He also averaged 9 yards per attempt which is another reason why the Panthers were ranked #11 in passing efficiency. We see Pitt getting into the 30s.
The Wildcats only gave up 22 points per game during the regular season but are going to have their hands full in this one. The Panthers were #3 (!) in the FBS in sacks allowed per game and Northwestern was only #8 in the Big 10 in sacks per game and TFL per game. We do not think the the Wildcats can just sit back and slow down the Panthers’ attack without creating PENETRATION but I guess that is why they play the games.
Northwestern offense vs Pittsburgh defense
QB Clayton Thorson is really developing nicely and is going to get to throw against a depleted and struggling secondary. When given time, the Northwestern passing attack can MATRICULATE down the field and make big plays. The question ? Will Thorson get time to throw ? The Pitt pass rush was #3 in the ACC in sacks per game and the Wildcats were #13 in the Big 10 in sacks allowed. The match-up is not ideal for the Wildcats because their excellent RB Justin Jackson (1,300 yards) goes up against the part of the Pitt defense that is actually good (the run defense), and in fact, were ranked #9 in the FBS. Of course, people were so busy bombing away in the Pitt secondary that might have been part of the the reason. In any event, Northwestern is going to have to move the ball through the air and make a lot of big plays MATRICULATING. WR Austin Carr is a legit #1 WR (84, 1,196 12 TD) and should have a yuuuuuuuge day. Bottom line. Northwestern will have to keep Thorson upright so he can rip the secondary apart. Not an easy task vs the Panthers.
Motivation / Intangibles
Northwestern – Not much to think about here. They can finish with a winning record (7-6). Not too much to get the blood cursing through your veins. And Pitt is not a name big enough to get them too jacked up. The Yankee Stadium venue is pretty unique. GRADE – Average.
Pittsburgh – They finished up on quite the nice little roll winning their last three games including a win at Clemson. Not sure a game with Northwestern gets these guys too geeked up either. Do not see a motivational edge for either team. GRADE – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Field goals may be hard to come by in this game…..Aptly-named Pitt PK Chris Blewitt was only 9/15 this season while the Wildcats were a comical 3/6 from 30+ yards……Pitt has lost their last two bowl games including last year’s loss to Navy….HC Pat Narduzzi looks for his first taste of bowl victory glory……For all the young SPARKIES out there….You should probably know that Northwestern has lost 10 of their last 11 (!) bowl games since the epic 1948 Rose Bowl that we are still talking about to this day….Sometimes they show up to play but last season got blown to pieces by Tennessee.
Summary
“THEY ARE DUE” GUY has a rough season trying to chase Pitt unders. The Panthers were a remarkable 11-1 to the over this season and while is seems hard to believe that a Northwestern game can be totaled this high, we are just going to accept the fact that Pitt is an honorary BIG 12 member this season and anything goes. Total seems a bit high (we lined it at 62-63) but going to stay clear. Whatever you decide regarding the total you should wait under the weather situation is a bit more certain.
Pitt appears to have a nice match-up but Northwestern does not beat themselves (#19 turnover margin, #3 penalty yards) and more often than not seem to find a way to be involved in close games. Pitt had a bunch of tight ones this season as well.
Have to go with the much better defense and hope that several weeks off is enough to figure out which gaping holes in the Pitt D to attack.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Northwestern +5.5. Would try to wait for +6 near game time. If it drops a bit it is not really a problem as 5 is a dead number. This is one game to probably be extra careful with even if you are NEED ACTION GUY.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES