TEXAS BOWL PREVIEW – TEXAS A&M vs KANSAS ST
TEXAS A&M 2.5 KANSAS ST (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas A&M -1 Sagarin ratings – Texas A&M -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas A&M 30 Kansas St 27.5
The Game
This is a very underrated match-up and we have a feeling it may come down to the final minute or two. Kansas St finished up at 8-4 and capped off a nice season with a big road DEMOLITION of TCU in their final game. They finished up HOT and only lost to some really good teams – Stanford, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and West Virginia. Texas A&M always seems to “disappoint” but they DID win 8 games and can boast wins over Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee. I know the expectations are high, but 8-wins feels like a decent campaign, especially when you have to go without your starting QB for a stretch of games. Two pretty good teams with contrasting styles. Let’s go !
The Match-Up
Texas A&M offense vs Kansas St defense
We are under the assumption that QB Trevor Knight is a go for this contest. Back-up Jake Hubenak is a better passer with less mobility and experience. Knight only completed 52% of his passes but did have a good 16-6 TD to INT ratio including 3-0 vs LSU in the last game of the season. We presume that the extra time off will suit him well. The Aggies can definitely use his mobility (594, 10 TD rushing) and he should be able to hit some big plays vs the Kansas St secondary if he can get some time to throw. The Aggies feature a 1,000 RB in Trayveon Williams and that gives them balance on offense. Kansas St was solid against the run (#11 FBS) but not so much against the pass (#86 pass efficiency defense). If A&M can run the ball a little they will be able to MATRICULATE down the field and make some big plays in the passing game. WR Josh Reynolds averaged over 18 yards a reception and had 10 TD grabs. The biggest key in maybe the entire game is the Kansas St DL getting pressure and PENETRATION. Jordan Willis and Reggie Walker combined for 18 sacks. If A&M has a lot of 3rd and medium and 3rd and long we do not think they can go too long without turning it over and giving up big plays to the Kansas St defense.
Kansas St offense vs Kansas St defense
We are probably in the minority but really like watching Kansas St play football. Even on offense. They run the ball well, particularly with QB Jesse Ertz (945, 10 TD), but they also have a deep and steady RB unit. There is not a lot of explosiveness in the unit (longest run by someone other than Ertz – 43 yards) but they keep the chains moving and grind the other team down. Ertz often struggles with his accuracy and the WR unit is decent but not a unit that should give Texas A&M too many problems. Byron Pringle leads the team with just over 500 yards receiving.
Texas A&M gave up 200+ rushing yards on five occasions but do not have a serious passing game to deal with in this game. They will load up and try to stop the Wildcats’ rushing attack but that is easier said than done. Kansas St will have to find a way to stop future #1 NFL draft pick (#1 overall ?) Myles Garrett. The best way to do that is to just run their offense and stay out of obvious passing situations.
Motivation / Intangibles
Kansas St – This feels like a team that will never let you down in terms of effort. They have a chance for a 9-win season capped off by beating a good SEC team. Not a marquee game, but Kansas St has not been to too many of those recently. GRADE – Above average.
Texas A&M – They struggled a bit down the stretch. Never sure where their heads are at to be honest. Nobody gets too geeked up for Kansas St and it often costs them. GRADE – Below average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Amaze your local BARTENDER with this gem…..The greatest coach of all time (source: ESPN) Bill Snyder (actually 2nd best next to Lamar Jackson. source: ESPN) is only 7-10 in bowl games…..He has done an incredible job with this program but the bowl season for whatever reason has not been as successful…..not saying just saying….Texas A&M HC Kevin Sumlin is 4-2 in bowl games and 3-1 with Texas A&M….His only loss was last year’s close call with W Virginia…..WATCH OUT for the return games…..Both teams are dangerous on returns and we would not be surprised to see a long TD PR or KR in this one…..”I NEED ACTION” GUY may want to look at the longest TD prop and consider taking the OVER for a STEALTH play.
Summary
This is another one of those bowl match-ups with contrasting styles that is super-interesting to handicap but difficult to wager on with confidence given the added uncertainty of bowl season in general. To us, having watched both teams, Kansas St seems to be the more reliable way to go. However, they lack big play ability, and an ill-timed fumble or mistake could make the difference. The safer move is to probably roll with Texas A&M TT under. Even if they win, it is hard to see them exceeding 30 points. Kansas St slows the game down to a pretty humorous level. We like it. You just do not want to have an over in play when they have the ball. Will drive you nuts.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Texas A&M team total under 30 or better. If that is not available to you, Kansas St ML.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES