RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL PREVIEW – WEST VIRGINIA vs MIAMI
MIAMI 2.5 W VIRGINIA (57)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -3 Sagarin ratings – Miami -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 29.75 W Virginia 27.25
The Game
It’s an old-school BIG EAST-style brawl as the Miami Hurricanes take on West Virginia in Orlando. This appears to be one of the most evenly-matched bowl games on this season’s docket and it should be a close, well-played and hard-hitting game.
The Mountaineers had a solid season finishing up at 10-2 and coming close to winning the Big 12 Title. They were right in the mix until the late season loss to the Sooners. The Hurricanes had a pretty good campaign themselves finishing up at 8-4 in year one of the Mark Richt era. The Canes lost 4 straight games in the middle of the season but straightened things out and finished strongly with – you guessed it – 4 consecutive wins.
The Match-Up
Miami offense vs W Virginia defense
The Hurricanes have really good balance and looked to be hitting their stride at the end of the season. RB Mark Walton has established himself as a legitimate #1 RB (1,065, 14 TD) and Miami showed that they could stay committed to the running game in their win over NC State. QB Brad Kaaya may be playing in his last collegiate game, and regardless of what he decides, he is the first Miami QB in team history to have THREE 3,000 yard passing seasons. The Canes feature a number of potent weapons in the passing game including emerging star WR Ahmmon Richards and TE David Njoku who is match-up nightmare that averaged over 17 yards per reception.
The Mountaineers gave up some yards, but considering the offenses that they faced in the Big 12, did a really good job holding opponents to 23 points per game (#35 FBS). They had the 2nd most INT in the Big 12 (14) and were the #1 pass efficiency D in their conference. They allowed some yards, but were pretty stingy overall allowing only 17 TD passes. Our biggest concern for the Mountaineers is the ability to get PENETRATION on defense. Miami’s offense is tough to defend if you cannot get pressure on Kaaya. The OL did a fine job against Pitt and NC State to end the season. W Virginia was 83rd in the FBS in sacks per game and #119 (!) in TFL per game.
W Virginia offense vs Miami defense
QB Skylar Howard has led the team to 18 wins in the past two seasons and will be looking to add another vs the Hurricanes. Howard is not a “threat” running the ball but is crafty enough to move the chains and also pick up rushing TDs (9). He does the most damage MATRICULATING in the passing game as he threw for 26 TDs while throwing 10 INT. He did throw 14 picks last season and will have to have a very clean boxscore for the Mountaineers to win this game. Miami was third in the ACC in pass efficiency defense but only picked off 8 passes. Their strength is in not letting you beat them with the deep ball too often so Howard will have to be patient. W Virginia has a very deep RB unit and Justin Crawford really started to roll near the end of the season. Much like Miami, the Mountaineers will have to be patient with the running game.
Miami did a good job vs some pretty good running teams (Florida St, Pitt) and this feels like a match-up they can take advantage of because of their team speed on defense. There are a lot of young players, particularly at LB, so the Mountaineers are sure to hit some good medium range plays. The Hurricanes are excellent at getting PENETRATION (#22 FBS sacks per game, #6 TFL) and will be looking to get W Virginia behind the chains.
Motivation / Intangibles
Miami – First year of the Richt era. Have not won a bowl game since the 2006 MPC Computers Bowl vs Nevada. Six straight losses. They will be fired up to played a 10-win ranked opponent. GRADE – Above average.
West Virginia – They have the advantage of being the “disrespected underdog”. And were rivals for a short time in the Big East. Fair enough. Just seems like a no-win situation for the Mountaineers as they have already bagged a nice 10-win season. GRADE – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
We always found it a bit amusing that Mark Richt got so much criticism, but when you are with a big name and great football program like Georgia, I guess that is part of the deal…..Richt was 9-5 in bowl games with Georgia so probably was doing something right in the postseason….W Virginia HC Dana Holgorsen is 2-2 in bowl games including last seasons exciting win over Arizona St….W Virginia was #3 in the Big 12 in turnover margin and #1 in turnovers gained….Miami better not assume that the Mountaineers are gonna be the ones making the mistakes…..Miami recently suspended 7 players (mostly backups) for this game…..Miami has a yuuuuuge edge in special teams with a great return game and rock solid placekicker.
Summary
This is one of the most intriguing match-ups of the bowl season. Decent ACC vs Very Decent Big 12 is not a match-up you get to see very often. We have a lot of respect for West Virginia, however, we are going to roll with the better defense, special teams and more motivated team. The odds are that Miami will also have more yards rushing. Feels like a game Miami should win.
Conclusion
Official play: Miami -2.5 -110
Best play on the game: See above.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO