SUGAR BOWL PREVIEW – AUBURN vs OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMA 2.5 AUBURN (64.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em Sagarin ratings – Oklahoma -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 33.5 Auburn 31
The Game
What a great way to finish the bowl season before we get to the final game on January 9th !
The Sooners were Big 12 CHAMPS running the table in conference (9-0) with their only losses coming early to Ohio St (understandable) and in week one to a motivated and well-prepared Houston squad (understandable, but you better go 11-1 after losing that game if you want to control your playoff destiny. If not – you better bribe as many people at ESPN as you can). They won NINE straight to end the season and would have been a great choice for the Final 4 since they – imagine this – actually WON their conference. Two losses made it debatable. Nonetheless, the Sooners have a shot to make this a GREAT season with a win over a good SEC team in the Sugar Bowl. One of the more traditional bowl games around.
Auburn has been sneaky good in 2016 and really suffered without Sean White at QB. And it did not help when BUDDING JUGGERNAUT RB Kamryn Pettway was unavailable due to injury. Nevertheless, the Tigers lost a close one to Clemson, beat LSU, Ole Miss and Arkansas (56-3). Finishing up at 9-4 with a win over the Sooners would really be big for the Tigers heading into 2017.
The Match-Up
Oklahoma offense vs Auburn defense
The Sooners offense was fantastic as per usual. They finished up #2 in the FBS in total offense while finishing in the top 20 in rushing AND passing. We had Baker Mayfield at #2 on the only Heisman ballot (ours) not tainted by bribes and the Heisman Voter ESPN ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE. #1 still gets to play on January 9th.
Mayfield had another phenomenal year throwing for over 3,600 yards 38 TD and only 8 TDs. He completed 71 % (!) of his passes and averaged 11 (!) yards per attempt. This is not Air Force or Navy throwing a couple times a quarter as a surprise. Mayfield has good mobility and is always looking to MATRICULATE down the field to ACE WR Dede Westbrook (74, 1,465, 16 TD). When the Sooners are not making big plays in the passing game they are pounding you with one of the best RB duos in college football. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon combined for over 2,100 rushing yards and 19 TDs. Mixon was also the teams’ 2nd leading receiver in terms of yards and receptions.
The Sooners’ offense is going to be a handful, but the Auburn Tigers’ defense just might be up to the challenge. Auburn was #5 in scoring defense in the FBS and held Clemson to under 20 points and 400 yards of offense. Normally we would not point to a game back on September 3rd, but in this case, that performance can be supported by the fact that only THREE teams scored 20+ on them all season and only ONE team got to 30 (ROLL TIDE – 30). Auburn will have to find a way to harass Mayfield and get him to the ground. The Auburn defense will be smoked more than once in the passing game but we feel that they can force a turnover or two and STIFFEN in the red zone (#3 FBS red zone defense). That will enable them to stay in the game.
Auburn offense vs Oklahoma defense
It is going to be really interesting to see how the Auburn offense comes out with a month off to prepare and an opportunity to get guys healed up. Sean White is VERY underrated at QB and missed the last two games. White was very efficient completing 65% of his passes and only throwing 3 INT in 198 attempts. The Tigers only have ONE (!) receiver with over 250 (!) yards but the good news is that their top 3 all average 16+ yards per reception. The Tigers do not MATRICULATE in the passing game often, but when they do, they prefer to hit big plays.
It is really all about the running game. RB Kamryn Pettway was really fun to watch this season and he had a stretch of 7 games in which he appeared that resulted in 6-100 yard games. K Johnson is also helpful in the running game and White is also annoying enough to cause problems for the defense. Oklahoma has suffered some injuries on the DL and that has contributed to their late season decline in run defense. In the final three games of the season they have up 217,388 and 212 yards rushing. They are not great at achieving PENETRATION so we have a hard time seeing the Tigers getting stopped too often. Oklahoma allowed 24,24,28 and 20 to finish up the year.
Motivation / Intangibles
Oklahoma – Sugar Bowl. Let’s gooooo ! The Sooners won the Big 12 and this is NOT the CFB Playoff so there is a bit of risk. The good news is that we will not get to see Clemson take them behind the WOODSHED for a third straight season. GRADE – Average.
Auburn – We just have a gut feel that this team has not achieved their big moment. This has to be it. Not hard to get up for the Sooners. GRADE – Good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Gus Malzahn is 1-2 in bowl games with Auburn but both losses were by 3 points…..Amaze your SPARRING BUDDY at the local gym with this one….Auburn has scored exactly 31 points in THREE straight bowl games….and the MEGALOCKS supercomputer has them scoring 31 again in this game….BIG GAME BOB is 8-9 in bowl games with Oklahoma but 8-7 if you do not count games against the vastly underrated DABO SWINNEY who will never be recognized as a great HC until ESPN sends out a memo…..Oklahoma is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowl appearances.
Summary
On paper, the Sooners have the best offense in football. In our opinion. The question becomes, can you trust this team when they lay SO MANY eggs in big games ? Auburn should be able to run their offense with ease and have a proven ability to hold teams to FGs in the red zone. Gotta roll with the better defense and the team that will run for more yards if we have to make a call. Really tough to bet against Mayfield.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Auburn ML +130. Play down to +110.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES