COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW – CLEMSON vs ALABAMA
ALABAMA 6.5 CLEMSON (50.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -4.5 Sagarin ratings – Alabama -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 28.5 Clemson 22
The Game
What a season. It all comes down to this game. As fans, we are really happy to see these two teams go head-to-head once again. If we get anything close to the game from last season we will be in for a treat !
There is not much to say about ROLL TIDE. Four (!) National Titles in the past seven seasons including a win over Clemson in last year’s edition. They have one of the best coaches of all time and boast an absolutely devastating defense. Haterzzz can hate – but they move like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE (quote: Secretariat’s yuuuuuge Belmont race) and have demonstrated consistency that is almost unprecedented in the history (!) of college football. ROLL TIDE, indeed.
Clemson does not play football often, but when they do, they prefer to WIN. They have bagged SIX straight 10-win seasons and have 27 victories (!!) over the past two campaigns. Blah blah blah Dabo Swinney blah blah. You know what ? Dabo is a pretty solid HC and we do not think that he gets the credit he deserves. Regardless, Clemson is a worthy opponent for ROLL TIDE, and probably the only team that has a shot of beating the reigning champs.
Let’s goooooooooooo !!
The Match-Up
Alabama offense vs Clemson defense
Lost in the “disappointing” (source: media hacks) win over Washington is that fact that ROLL TIDE managed to rush for 269 yards against a pretty good defense. RB Bo Scarborough is an emerging JUGGERNAUT and ran for 180 yards and a TD in the win over the Huskies. ROLL TIDE finished up the season ranked #11 in the FBS in rushing yards and have a couple of proven RBs and a mobile QB. The passing game has been a bit of an issue. Of course, that is not a problem when you are demolishing teams, but we feel that Alabama will need to MATRICULATE in the passing game to win their 5th title in eight seasons. They only passed for 57 yards last week. The departure of OC Lane Kiffin adds an element of uncertainty to the equation.
This is going to be an interesting battle. Clemson did some fine work last week against a really good running team with a mobile QB. ROLL TIDE has a bit more speed at QB but does not have the SWISS ARMY KNIFE Curtis Samuel (Ohio St) that will need to be accounted for on every play. The Alabama passing game has been struggling and they go up against the #4 pass efficiency defense in the FBS which has faced some pretty good passing attacks. Clemson is also really good on third downs (#6 FBS) and can bring serious PENETRATION (#5 FBS sacks per game; #3 tackles for loss per game) whilst ROLL TIDE is 13th (!) in the SEC and #108 nationally in TFL allowed per game.
Clemson offense vs Alabama defense
The real Heisman Trophy winner gets a shot at winning a YUUUUUUGE game to end a fantastic college career. Deshaun Watson is the run / pass threat that can stress the ROLL TIDE defense. Watson has thrown for 38 TD passes so far this season and ran for another 8 TDs while actually leading his team to a conference title and winning big games. Media hacks – take note. RB Wayne Gallman will not get a ton of yards against the ROLL TIDE defense but he runs like his hair is on fire AND the threat of a legitimate #1 RB will make Alabama have to respect a balanced offense. The real trouble for ROLL TIDE is going to be when Watson MATRICULATES in the passing game. Watson threw for 405 yards (!!) against Alabama in last year’s game and now has Mike Williams (#1 NFL DC ?) (90-1267-10 TD) to harass the Bama defense.
Alabama is a brick wall against the run. We know that. In last season’s game the Tigers managed to rush for 145 yards (3.8), and even if you assume they only get 90-100 in this game, it will be enough to move the chains and keep the ROLL TIDE defense honest. Alabama finished up the season #1 in total defense, #1 in scoring defense (11.4 points per game), #1 in run defense and #5 in pass efficiency defense. It is going to be tough sledding for Clemson.
Motivation / Intangibles
Alabama – Any team playing for all the marbles is going to be motivated. However, they beat Clemson last season, and there has still been a distraction around your pal Lane Kiffin leaving the program for FAU. The good news is that Nick Saban is leading the way. GRADE – Very Good.
Clemson – MEGALOCKS INC. does not believe in TEAMS OF DESTINY, although to be honest, this Tigers squad would fit the bill. They outgained ROLL TIDE last season and BELIEVE that they can win this game. There are a lot of players making their last stand. GRADE – Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Hard to say much about this game that has not already been said….Clemson is 27-2 over the past two seasons with their only losses coming to ROLL TIDE (by 5) and to Pitt (by 1)…..Both defenses come into this game on SUPAH HOT FIRE….Clemson shut out Ohio St and ROLL TIDE held the Huskies scoreless after an early TD.
Summary
One of the things that we all need to realize is that this Alabama program is on an amazing run. Regardless of the sport, sometimes it is hard to step back as fans, and realize that you are indeed watching something special.
Clemson just feels like the more balanced team. We love that fact that they faced Alabama last season and will not be intimidated. They proved that they can move the ball on the ROLL TIDE defense and now have a more explosive passing game than the one that put up 405 yards on the Crimson Tide last year. Do not forget. Last year, Alabama had 335 yards passing under the guidance of QB Jake Coker. They were held to 138 yards rushing. Normally, we would not pay attention to game notes from the previous season, but these teams are very similar to the squads that hooked up for last year’s classic. It is hard to imagine Alabama having similar success with the aerial attack.
One final note. If you are worried about REVERSE SHARP PUBLIC UNDERDOGS or UNREVERSED SQUARE VEGAS TRAPS – just watch the game as a fan. Both teams are excellent. Both teams can cover the spread. Play safe and ENJOY.
Conclusion
Official play: Clemson +6.5 -110
Best play on the game: See above.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES