OUTBACK BOWL PREVIEW – FLORIDA vs IOWA
FLORIDA 3 IOWA (40.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida -3 Sagarin ratings – Iowa -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida 21.75 Iowa 18.75
The Game
This could be a serious SNOT BUBBLER ! These are a couple of evenly matched teams with weak offenses and very good defenses.
The Gators came out of seemingly nowhere to clinch the SEC East with an impressive win over LSU late in the season. They got blown away by Alabama in the SEC Title game but did well to get to 8-4 given the injuries and weak QB play. Iowa finished strong winning their last three games and those victories included home wins over Michigan and Nebraska.
The Match-Up
Florida offense vs Iowa defense
The Gators were ranked #116 in total offense (!) this season and there were a number of reasons for that performance. Poor QB play. Inconsistent OL. Lack of a big play RB. Florida has not scored more than 24 points since the middle of October (Missouri). The Gators’ QB combo threw 16 TD passes vs 13 INTs and are going to have trouble against a rock solid secondary (#18 FBS pass efficiency defense). Florida showed some ability to run the ball well at times with some tough running from a committee of RB and Iowa allowed over 150 yards rushing per game. The big play threat at WR is Antonio Callaway who needs to come up with a huge gainer or two to give the Gators a chance to get into the 20s in points.
Iowa offense vs Florida defense
Iowa brings an “almost” pair of 1,000-yard RBs into this game and you can run the ball on the Gators if you are patient. Florida allowed over 142 yards per contest on the ground and L Daniels (1,013) and A Wadley (966) are gonna bring it for four quarters. The duo combined for 20 TDs rushing. QB CJ Beathard is crafty but does not have much to work with in the passing game. Their leading receiver has 506 yards (R McCarron) and nobody else has more than 400. The Gators’ pass defense is fantastic (#3 pass efficiency D in FBS).
Motivation / Intangibles
Florida – A bit of a tough call. Coming off a loss in the SEC Title Game ? Playing a 4-loss opponent. GRADE – Below average.
Iowa – They have lost 4 straight bowl games and have to want this one vs a name opponent. GRADE – Above average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
The Florida injury report is about 19,000 pages long with everyone listed as questionable….We do not have the time to decipher all that garbage…..As noted earlier, Iowa has lost four straight bowl games including last season’s PRISON STYLE BEATDOWN at the hands of Stanford….HC Ferentz is 6-7 in bowl games…..Jim McElwain has a 1-1 record in bowl games and was the HC for last season’s BLOWOUT loss to Michigan.
Summary
Feels like a close low scoring game to be decided by turnovers. Worst HOT TAKE ever we know, but just do not see an edge.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Under 40.5 (would play down to 40)
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES