BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL PREVIEW – LSU vs LOUISVILLE
LSU 3 LOUISVILLE (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -3 Sagarin ratings – LSU -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 31.25 Louisville 28.25
The Game
We love EVERY bowl match-up, but this one caught our eye right away. We are JACKED UP to see this game !
LSU had a really interesting 7-4 campaign. New HC. Cancelled game. Went toe to toe with Bama. Lost to Florida as big favorites. Star RB gonna sit out the bowl game. Clearly, the path has been set for 2017. Meanwhile, Louisville blew out Florida St and almost beat Clemson. The end of the season was very disappointing with a blowout loss to Houston and a defeat at the hands of Kentucky. The Cards finished up 9-3 and will try to get the 10th win against a big-time opponent.
The Match-Up
Louisville offense vs LSU defense
Heisman-winning superstar QB Lamar Jackson is going to have to be at his best in this game. Jackson finished up with a mind-boggling 30 TD passes AND 21 rushing scores. He averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt and only threw 9 INT. RB B Radcliff is very underrated and is going to be important in this game. Radcliff had 877 yards rushing at 6..6 yards a pop and will be crucial in keeping the LSU defense honest. Louisville spreads the ball out nicely in the passing game and had four players (!) with between 593 and 688 receiving yards. Jackson is explosive, but the other devastating part about this offense is that there are SO many options available. Our biggest concern is obviously PENETRATION as their OL is really bad at times and – this just in – LSU is pretty good on defense.
LSU only allowed 16 points per game and are absolutely loaded with speed. Containing Jackson is almost impossible but Houston did a great job (11 sacks – seemed like 110) and LSU has the same or more talent on defense. The run defense was a bit softer than normal late in the season when K Beckwith went down. They allowed 126 yards to Florida on the ground and 188 yards rushing to Texas A&M. Overall, the LSU D was a rock as they only allowed 7 rushing TDs and 9 passing TDs in 11 games. The Cards were a JUGGERNAUT. It will be hard to hold the Cards down for four quarters but it is tough to see Louisville having many sustained drives. They will need to keep hitting the big plays.
LSU offense vs Louisville defense
The Tigers will be without star RB L Fournette but still have one of the best RBs in college football in Derrius Guice who just set an LSU record with 285 yards rushing in one game (Texas A&M). Guice averaged 8 yards per carry and had 14 TDs in shared duty this season. QB Danny Etling had a great game vs Texas A&M but was pretty average against good defenses. Louisville qualifies under that heading despite their late season display.
The Cards defense finished up #9 vs the run and this appears to be a good match-up for them. They got carved up a bit vs the pass as most opponents were behind a LOT. The sneaky part about the Louisville D is that they were REALLY good vs the run and only allowed 6 TDs rushing and allowed an ACC-best 2.99 yards per carry. They should not have to worry too much about the passing game as Etling only managed 9 TD passes all season and they only have ONE player with more than 400 yards receiving (M Dupre – 454).
Motivation / Intangibles
LSU – It feels a bit like the Tigers were riding the “keep Coach O” momentum a lot of the season. They had 4 losses. We feel like they are just pumped for 2017. It helps that the Heisman Trophy winner is on the other sideline. GRADE – Below average.
Louisville – Big time opponent. Get to 10 wins. The problem ? So many distractions. Players getting shot. WAKEY LEAKS. Heisman stuff. End of season letdown. Tough call. GRADE – Poor.
MEGA BOWL BITES
LSU is 2-3 in their last 5 bowl appearances….The Cards have a 3-2 mark and Petrino is 5-4 in his career….Amaze your PSYCHO EX-GIRLFRIEND with this gem…..LSU is looking to become only the fourth team in history to beat FOUR Heisman winners.
Summary
Fascinating match-up. We really like the ability of the Cards to score at any time from anywhere on the field. On paper, the Cards should match-up with the LSU offense pretty well, but a lot of teams think that until LSU smashes them in the face for four quarters.
Conclusion
Official play: STILL THINKING ABOUT IT.
Best play on the game: Cards +3. No lower.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES