ORANGE BOWL PREVIEW – MICHIGAN vs FLORIDA ST
MICHIGAN 7 FLORIDA ST (52)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -5 Sagarin ratings – Michigan -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 29.5 Florida St 22.5
The Game
Whoa. What a match-up !
A ten win Michigan team who could have (should have ?) beat Ohio St travels to the Orange Bowl to face the 9-3 resurgent Florida St Seminoles. The Michigan offense sputtered a bit down the stretch but the defense has been flat out nasty all season. The Seminoles only had three losses and two of them were really close (UNC – 2, Clemson – 3). The Louisville BLOWOUT game in mid-September (!) was the one that everyone seems to remember and it was the deciding factor in the Heisman Trophy race (source: ESPN). Both of these programs are top notch. Both of these teams are proud and will leave everything on the field. Let’s goooooo !
The Match-Up
Florida St offense vs Michigan defense
Florida St has a really good offense and are going to provide Michigan with its sternest test of the season. We get our last NCAA look at superstar RB Dalvin Cook who had an amazing 1,620 yards rushing and 18 TDs while averaging 6 yards a pop. Cook also snagged an impressive 30 balls out of the backfield and is going to keep the Michigan defense busy. QB D Francois had a fine 3,000-yard season with 18 TDs vs 6 INTs. He also provides some mobility which will also make life difficult for the Wolverines. The WR unit is deep and was led by Travis Rudolph (807) for the second consecutive season. Florida St can score on anyone. The issue is that Michigan is not “everyone”.
The Michigan defense needs no introduction. They were a rock and finished #2 in the FBS. They were also #1 in 3rd down defense (21%) and #2 in sacks per game. Oh ya, and they were also fantastic in the red zone (#2). They are going to be put to the test as they face the best (?) RB in college football and a dangerous and mobile QB. The primary concern for Florida St is the PENETRATION that Michigan is capable of achieving. Their OL has been sketchy this season and has given up a lot of sacks. We see the Seminoles scoring some points but do not see many sustained drives. Big plays. Short fields. That will be the recipe for success.
Michigan offense vs Florida St defense
The Wolverines rolled though the majority of their schedule which consisted of a lot of home games vs crappy teams. The offense bogged down at the end of the season as they only managed 201, 284 and 310 (2 OT) yards in their final 3 games. It did not help that QB Wilton Speight missed some time and was banged up, but facts are facts. The Wolverines possess a deep running game that comes at you in waves, a really good run-blocking OL, a great receiving TE (Jake Butt) and a legit #1 WR Amara Darboh (826, 7 TD). We have a feeling the offense will be at its best for this game but will have to be aware of PENETRATION from the Seminoles who ranked #1 (!) in the FBS in sacks per game. Florida St only allowed 20,7,14 and 13 points in the last 4 games. They were not the best offensive squads, but then again, Michigan is not elite either. Michigan will have to keep pounding away in the run game and try and hit some big plays in the passing game. Not sure they can just line up and streamroll Florida St.
,Motivation / Intangibles
Michigan – They lost a really close game against Ohio St to close out the season. That would normally be a letdown, but the Orange Bowl is a big time bowl game, and they get a big time opponent. Cannot see them laying an egg. GRADE – Average.
Florida St – This is probably the best they could have hoped for after suffering their 3rd loss. They get to play in Florida and can play the underdog card. GRADE – Above average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Florida St HC Jimbo Fisher is 4-2 in bowl games but has lost the last two…….Michigan is 3-7 in their last 10 bowl appearances but 1-0 under coach Jim after last season’s pasting of Florida…..MEGALOCKS ACC INSIDERS advised us that Dalvin Cook is #1 in the FBS in broken tackles.
Summary
If there is a Michigan letdown, it will not be because they did not make the playoff. Nobody other than media hacks could justify letting the 3rd place team in their own DIVISION make the final four. Please. Stop.
Florida St can win this game IF their OL holds up but that is a big question mark.
We expect a low-scoring and relatively close game. Both teams are really good. Hopefully we get a classic.
Conclusion
Official play: Florida St +7 -110
Best play on the game: See above.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES