FIESTA BOWL PREVIEW – OHIO ST vs CLEMSON
OHIO ST 2.5 CLEMSON (58.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em Sagarin ratings – Ohio St -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 30.5 Clemson 28
The Game
Yes sir ! What a game this should be.
Ohio St came really close to a perfect regular season. The only blemish on their 11-1 record was a crazy road loss to Penn St in which the always fun blocked FG came into play. They outscored their opponents 512-170 on the season, and even when you account for the pure filth bottom of the Big 10, that is still a pretty impressive statistic. COULD HAVE SHOULD HAVE GUY will tell you that Ohio St was lucky to escape Michigan and Michigan St without a loss but we prefer to look at FACTS and have to be impressed with 11-1.
What does Clemson do after winning FOURTEEN games last year ? The run off a 12-1 regular season and get to the college football playoff once again. Their only misstep was a one-point loss to Pitt. They beat Auburn, Louisville and Florida St. That is a pretty good resume. COULD HAVE SHOULD HAVE GUY will tell you how they should have lost to NC St blah blah blah and Louisville and blah blah but once again, we prefer to roll with the FACTS and see a 12-1 team. Bravo.
The excitement is PALPABLE at MEGALOCKS headquarters.
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Clemson defense
Ohio St gets a lot of grief for not being able to MATRICULATE with the deep ball in the passing game but they are really efficient and still score a lot of points. We might be bigger JT Barrett fans than most. He ran for 847 yards, completed 62% of his passes and had a really solid 24-5 TD to INT ratio. Only 5 interceptions in 346 attempts. The Buckeyes boast a 1,000 yard back in Mike Weber and a great run/receiving threat in Curtis “Percy Harvin” Samuel who had 704 yards rushing and led the team with 65 receptions. Clemson is going to have their hands full even without the threat of a serious deep threat.
Clemson’s defense is really good and finished up ranked #8 in the FBS. They can get worked vs good offenses, and even though Ohio St does not possess a strong downfield passing game, the Tigers will still have to be sharp. Clemson is really good on third downs (#7 FBS) and has the ability to get serious PENETRATION (#4 sacks per game FBS – #3 TFL).
Clemson offense vs Ohio St defense
If you want a QB for one big game – who do you pick ? MEGALOCKS HQ sides with D Watson and he had another great season. A few too many interceptions for our liking (15) but he did have 487 attempts and threw 37 TD passes. This is the match-up of the game. Can Watson do damage against the #1 pass efficiency (!) defense in the FBS ? Ohio St did not face too many decent passing attacks but they are going to be tough. WR Mike Williams is a 1,000-yard man and headlines a really deep receiving group. Wayne Gallman had another (yawn) 1,000-yard season at RB. Plenty to worry about if you are a member of the Ohio St defense. Oh, and there is mobility at QB as well.
Ohio St gave up only 91 yards rushing to Michigan and that is impressive since, as noted earlier, they also had the #1 pass efficiency defense in the FBS. The defense is very opportunistic and they were #20 in turnovers forced (25). Ohio St is also really good on third downs. Heck of a match-up.
Motivation / Intangibles
Ohio St – Big game. Motivation will be there. A relatively young team but also plenty of leadership at QB and HC. Grade – Good.
Clemson – Redemption time, baby. In some respects, we feel like they have been looking ahead to the playoff since September. Grade – Good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Dabo Swinney just keeps winning games……but he faces Urban Meyer !….oh wait….This has happened before and Clemson BEAT Ohio St 40-35…..Scratch that….Bottom line….We do not see the huge edge at HC that many people see….The players will decide the outcome #HotTake….Clemson had rattled consecutive bowl wins vs LSU, Ohio St and back to back JACKS vs the Sooners before losing to ROLL TIDE in the playoff last season….Urban Meyer is 10-2 in bowl games and that is just GREAT….but his only bowl loss at Ohio St ?? see above.
Summary
We have this game lined at a pick em. Would want 3+ for either side to take a major position. Our big worry about Clemson is their tendency to turn the ball over and the seemingly magical ability of Ohio St to make things happen on defense.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: First half under 29.5.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES