NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL PREVIEW – SOUTH ALABAMA vs AIR FORCE
AIR FORCE 13.5 S ALABAMA (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Air Force -14 Sagarin ratings – Air Force -14.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Air Force 35.5 South Alabama 22
The Game
If you have not heard of this bowl game, you are not alone. There is no national TV coverage for this bad boy in 2016 and last year it was an internet-only experience for the inaugural game. Nevertheless, from what we can ascertain, the game is being played in Tuscon on December 30th.
Air Force comes into the game with an impressive 9-3 record including a win over Boise St in the season finale. They hit a bit of a rough stretch mid-season but finished red hot winning their last five games. South Alabama finished up at 6-6 and needed two wins over FCS schools to get to the 6-win bowl eligibility mark. Normally, you can only count one win over an FCS team towards your bowl-eligible win-total, but the NCAA gave them a break since one of the games was a fill-in game (Presbyterian) due to the hurricane-related cancellation of their date with LSU.
The Match-Up
Air Force offense vs South Alabama defense
Air Force comes at you with a strong option rushing attack (#3 FBS) and have a multitude of weapons. RBs J Owens and T McVey average 6.3 and 8.3 yards per carry, DJ Johnson is a load on the dive play, and new QB Arion Worthman led the Falcons to five straight wins down the stretch and had 2-100 yard rushing games in the final month including 215 vs San Jose St. The Falcons do not pass the ball very often, but when they do, they prefer to hit BIG PLAYS and average over 11 yards an attempt. That makes them one of the most efficient and dangerous passing teams. Only one player on the team had double digit receptions (!) and that was fantastic WR Jalen Robinette who caught 33 balls for 835 yards (25.3). Air Force will take a bunch of deep shots and the game and / or the cover will likely depend on how successful the air attack is during the contest.
South Alabama was not great over the course of the season against the run and that is not a good thing coming into this match-up. Georgia Southern is the closest thing to the Air Force attack that they saw during the regular season and they were hit up for over 300 yards in that contest (4.8 per carry). They did do a decent job against a strong Aztecs running game in their upset win, and do have a lot of preparation time, so there is hope that they can keep the Falcons from going completely nuts.
South Alabama offense vs Air Force defense
The Jaguars’ offense picked it up during the later stages of the season and finished up scoring 35,31,31 and 35 in their November games. The competition was pretty soft, but the offense did have success, and confidence is a big thing heading into a bowl game. QB Dallas Davis had a disappointing 10-11 TD to INT ratio but has a number of decent targets at his disposal to attack the Falcons’ suspect pass defense. Leading receiver TE Gerald Everett did not have more than 49 yards in any of the last 5 games and will have to be a big part of the game plan as he averaged 14.6 yards a reception. The WR group is deep and good enough to cause problems.
The big issue we see for S Alabama will be their ability to run against a really good Air Force front 7. They only allowed 118 yards per game on the ground despite playing in the run-heavy Mountain West conference. The Jaguars have a decent running game and will need RB X Johnson to have a bit of success or the offense is in for a long day. Air Force gave up a lot of yards in the passing game but did pick off 14 passes.
Motivation / Intangibles
South Alabama – This is their 2nd ever bowl game. Their first effort was a close loss to Bowling Green in the 2014 Camellia Bowl. Sounds like they are all business for this one. The entire season can be salvaged with an upset in this game. And it is another example of a team having a shot at becoming instant heroes. GRADE – Excellent.
Air Force – Many Falcons’ fans are disappointed. Playing against a 6-6 Sun Belt team in a game with no national TV coverage seems a bit odd after winning 9 games in a sneaky-tough conference. MEGALOCKS Air Force INSIDERS also advised us that the team is flying out Christmas morning. GRADE – poor. (Note: any team other than a service academy would have a rating of PUTRID)
MEGA BOWL BITES
The Falcons have been strangely disappointing in recent bowl games with only three wins in their last 9 appearances…….It seems impossible, but the Jaguars went 2-6 in the Sun Belt (!) and still made it to 6-6 and got a bowl date…..Air Force has a huge edge in the FG department as Luke Strebel is really good whilst the Jaguars where only 1/5 from 40+ yards….Air Force does have a shot at a 10-win season…..The Jaguars are a rotten 8-24 L32 ATS and the Falcons are 2-6 L8 ATS….something has to give.
Summary
On paper, it appears that this is a great match-up for Air Force. The running game should be a monster. The run defense should force the Jaguars into being one-dimensional. Here is the rub. South Alabama is probably the toughest (at least for us) team in the FBS to handicap. Keep in mind, this team beat Mississippi St on the road (yes, late missed FG for Bulldogs, but facts are facts) and blew away San Diego St in the 4th quarter to win 42-24 in one of the more underrated SHOCKERS of the year. They have a knack for playing in close games, and when you add a potentially unmotivated opponent to the mix, it feels like an accident waiting to happen if you lay 2 TDs.
We think the Jaguars can get to 24 with their passing game.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: S Alabama TT over 22.5 if you need action.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES