SUN BOWL PREVIEW – STANFORD vs NORTH CAROLINA
STANFORD 3 NORTH CAROLINA (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Stanford -4 Sagarin ratings – Stanford -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Stanford 28.5 North Carolina 25.5
The Game
This has always been one of our favorite games. Usually a good match-up. Always potential weather issues. Afternoon start time. What is not to love ?
North Carolina struggled down the stretch losing two of their last three games. Their win came against The Citadel. Stanford ? They had the quietest 9-win season you could imagine. The Cardinal won five of their last six games to close out the season but have to play the game without superstar RB C McCaffrey.
The Match-Up
Stanford offense vs North Carolina defense
Ok. Elephant in the room. No C McCaffrey.
We have that out of the way. The Cardinal are going to miss the services of one of the best football players in college football. The good news is that QB K Chryst was really good late in the season and we will get a good look at RB Bryce Love. Stanford as #37 in the FBS in rushing offense (#3 PAC 12) and will be able to do some good work against the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the North Carolina run defense that finished 2nd last (!) in the ACC in run defense. It is a good match-up for Stanford as they can run their offense and have faith in knowing that there is no reason they cannot run their offense and be very successful. The Cardinal do not have anyone with over 500 yards receiving on the team but will have plenty of time to figure out how to MATRICULATE in the passing game when needed. North Carolina does not specialize in defense.
North Carolina offense vs Stanford defense
There is some chatter about QB M Trubisky going to the NFL after this season. As we go to press, the story is that he will announce his decision after the bowl game. It may or may not have any impact on this game, but talk like that can be a distraction. Trubisky had a really nice season throwing for almost 3,500 yards with a sparkling 28 TD to 4 INT ratio. The running game has not been the typical JUGGERNAUT we are used to seeing lately but North Carolina can take consolation in the fact that Stanford has been exposed vs good offenses (allowed 44,42,27,31 on different occasions). NOTE – Subsequent to press time – Officially announced RB E Hood will not play.
Motivation / Intangibles
Stanford – Sure. This is a lower-tier bowl game in the eyes of many Stanford fans, but keep in mind, the Cardinal are pretty reliable and had no problem beating up on Maryland in something called the Foster Farms Bowl a couple years ago. Hard to say what impact the CM departure will have. Not going to doubt HC D Shaw. Grade – Average.
North Carolina – The Tar Heels have crapped the bed in their last two bowl appearances as the favorite. That includes last season’s debacle where Baylor had no QB but ran for 22,000 yards. This does not strike us a a resilient team even though WR Ryan Switzer is one of our favorite players. Beating Stanford without their best player probably does not get the Tar Heels too jacked up. Grade – Below Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Stanford is on a pretty impressive 20-9 L29 ATS streak entering this game……Keep an eye on the weather…..we recommend staying clear of the total until a better indication of weather conditions is clear…..Stanford won five of their last six games BUT none of those games were against bowl-eligible opponents…..Amaze your NEXT DOOR NEIGHBOR HARLOT with this gem…..North Carolina only picked off ONE pass (!!) this season….That seems almost unbelievable and would love to hear from MEGALOCKS FANS across the GLOBE….did we get this wrong ??
Summary
So many moving parts to this one. How will Stanford react to losing one of the best players in team history (no exaggeration) ? Is UNC tough enough to match-up with Stanford for four quarters ?
Stanford beat nobody down the stretch. UNC struggled against good defenses beating Miami by a score of 20-13 but losing to Georgia and getting poleaxed by Virginia Tech in less than ideal weather.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Stanford -2 for small potatoes (play up to -3)
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO.