PEACH BOWL PREVIEW AND PREDICTION – WASHINGTON vs ALABAMA
ALABAMA 14 WASHINGTON (53)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -13 Sagarin ratings – Alabama -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 33.5 Washington 19.5
The Game
Things get REAL for Alabama. It feels like the regular season has been a bit of a waiting game for ROLL TIDE. They have destroyed all comers on route to a 13-0 record and now face the JUGGERNAUT Washington Huskies who finished up at 12-1.
The Match-Up
Alabama offense vs Washington defense
ROLL TIDE put up 30 points in every game but one (LSU). While it is true that they scored a lot of points on defense and special teams, the offense is very efficient and has a dangerous dual threat playmaker at the controls. True freshman QB Jalen Hurts threw for 22 TDs and ran for another 12 scores. He completed 65% of his passes and only threw 9 INTs. RB Damien Harris is almost certain to cross the 1,000-yard mark in this game (986) and they have a reliable set of TRIPLETS to rely on in the passing game. WRs Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart combined to rack up over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs. OJ Howard is a dangerous weapon at TE. Bottom line. Talented and balanced.
The Huskies finished up ranked #11 in the FBS in total defense and were good vs the run (#20) and vs the pass (#10 pass efficiency defense). They will be missing a couple of key players (J Mathis, A Victor) and will have to find a way to stop the bruising Alabama running attack. Their secondary is still loaded, but we worry about them being pounded into submission. The Huskies forced 33 (!!) turnovers and were #1 in turnover margin in the FBS. They will need to force some mistakes and get some PENETRATION (#21 FBS sacks per game) to have a shot in this game.
Washington offense vs Alabama defense
Jake Browning threw for almost 3,300 yards and had a great 42-7 TD to INT ratio. RBs M Gaskin and L Coleman combined for over 2,100 yards and 17 TDs whilst the ACE receiving combo of J Ross and D Pettis had almost 2,000 combined yards and 31 TDs. The weapons are there to score some points. The problem is scoring on an Alabama defense that only allowed 15 TDs (!) all season.
Alabama allowed 10,14,0,3,3,12 and 16 points in their final 7 games. Auburn and LSU were both held to under 200 yards of offense in November. Florida “rolled” for 261. ROLL TIDE gives up a measly 64 yards rushing per game (#1 FBS) and bring the #1 overall defense to the table. The Huskies did a pretty good job all season keeping the QB clean and avoiding negative plays BUT they really struggled vs USC. That had no problem with Stanford or Utah or Colorado. This is a YUUUUGE step up in class. Have to figure the result will be closer to USC than the home game vs Stanford. We DO think they can hit some big passing plays IF Browning does not get destroyed by the ROLL TIDE front 7.
Motivation / Intangibles
Alabama – This is what they have played for all season. They are used to the spotlight. Two TD favorites are hard to endorse but they have earned the right to be trusted. GRADE – Very good.
Washington – SHOCK THE WORLD time. Nothing to lose. They will be ready. Will the moment be too big ? GRADE – Very good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Washington scored 31+ in 12/13 games this season only missing the mark in their loss to the Trojans….LSU held ROLL TIDE to 10 points…..Alabama put up 30+ in every other game…..Nick Saban is 10-8 in bowl games and 7-3 with the Tide…..Chris Petersen is 6-3 in bowl games and 1-1 with the Huskies…..Washington has the edge at PK but not sure that is going to matter in this game.
Summary
ROLL TIDE has a phenomenal defense and is going to make life very difficult for the Huskies. Washington has really nice weapons at WR, but if they cannot run the ball, it is going to be really tough to make the Alabama defense pay too often with the deep pass. Meanwhile, Alabama has to believe that the perfect game plan is to just pound the smaller Husky team into the ground with the running game and make no mistakes. Keep it simple. You have to believe that ROLL TIDE is well aware of the +21 Husky turnover margin. Play smart and win. Do not get too cute with the Washington secondary.
Conclusion
Official play: First half under 27 -115
Best play on the game: See above
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO