Ball St at Georgia St – Preview and Prediction
GEORGIA ST 3 BALL ST 53
Implied Projected Score: Georgia St 28 Ball St 25
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia St 4
The Game
It does not get much better than MACtion vs Sun Belt. We love watching teams in the Group of 5 conferences go at it. Georgia St is coming off a hot finish last season where they won their last four games to make it to a bowl game. Ball St has a new HC in Mike Neu who is the former QB coach for the New Orleans Saints.
The Match-Up
Georgia St offense vs Ball St defense
One of the most significant under-the-radar losses for any team in the BCS this season is the Panthers losing QB Nick Arbuckle who threw for over 4,300 yards and 28 TD passes last season. A formal announcement has not been made yet in terms of who will be the new starter, but we have a hunch that both Conner Manning and Aaron Winchester get snaps on Friday night. Either way, there is a lot of inexperience and one can never be sure how things will go under that scenario.
The running game has been a disaster for Georgia St since they joined the Sun Belt. They have gone two straight seasons averaging less than 100 yards rushing per game. The offensive line looks to be better but the depth at RB is still questionable. The WR group is one of the best in the conference so the upside is there for some good work when they need to MATRICULATE in the passing game.
The Ball St defense has 9 starters returning BUT this defense was shredded to bits at times in 2015 so we are unsure what to think at this point. It has to help that they are facing a new QB, but then again, they have no tape to watch on either of the potential starters. Puzzler.
Ball St offense vs Georgia St defense
The Cardinals offense would have us intrigued except for the tiny problem with the offensive line. They only return 2/5 starters to the unit and we think they may have their hands full with a very good Panthers defense.
QB Riley Neal looks to us like a keeper as he had a very nice freshman season. They also have a nice group of RBs even though they are a bit undersized. The WR corps is also decent despite the loss of leading receiver Jordan Williams.
We are drinking the Kool Aid when it comes to the Georgia St defense. They return 9 starters to a unit that really finished the season on a strong note. They only allowed 19 10 21 7 27 in their final 5 contests. If they could ever find a pass rush….whoa.
Tasty Tidbits
Georgia St has been deep undercover going 21-15-1 ATS under HC Trent Miles the past three seasons….however they are only 1-3 as home favorites #smallsamplesize….MEGALOCKS COACHING INSIDERS think DC Jesse Minter is going to have a new job next year (#dollars) what a job he is doing with the Panthers…..Ball St was on an epic 29-10 ATS run as road dogs before going 1-4 last season……Dead serious moment – Ball St could make a bowl game this season but it would be tough without winning this one.
Summary
A lot of uncertainty at QB for Georgia St. We would gladly lay a TD with the Panthers if Arbuckle was still there, but sadly, we do not know how the QB situation will shake out. Ball St can be sneaky in this one if the defense is better than advertised.
Conclusion
No official play.
Lean: Georgia St feels like the right side but we cannot justify a full recommendation. Small potatoes action is probably ok for those that need to back somebody in this one. No higher than -3 -120.