Bowling Green at Ohio St – Preview and Prediction
OHIO ST 27.5 BOWLING GREEN 63.5
Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 45.5 Bowling Green 18
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St 24
The Game
It’s reload time for Ohio St as they bring one of the most inexperienced teams in college football into the home opener against Bowling Green. The Falcons are also experiencing a lot of changes including a new head coach. Not to mention the loss of all-world QB Matt Johnson who threw for almost 5,000 yards and 46 TDs last season.
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Bowling Green defense
We feel really good about the offense despite all of the new faces. QB JT Barrett was really good in 2014 and we expect nothing less this season. There is a reload at RB and WR but there is so much talent on the roster that we fail to see them having issues moving the ball on Bowling Green. Having said that, it is a bit of a leap of faith when a team returns only three starters to an offensive unit, so it really impossible to know exactly how explosive they will be in the first game of the season.
Bowling Green returns their top two tacklers on defense but look pretty thin in terms of experience on the DL and in the secondary. The Falcons gave up 299+ yards rushing in three games last season and we think Ohio St could do the same on Saturday.
Bowling Green offense vs Ohio St defense
James Knapke takes over at QB and he does have a 3,000-yard season on his resume. The OL is excellent and very experienced. However, their leading rusher as well as their top two WRs (both had 1,000-seasons) depart and Bowling Green is going to have to rely heavily on new faces in this game.
Same story on defense as it is on offense for the Buckeyes. Tons of talent. Short on experience. Of course one of the exceptions is 1st Team Big 10 LB Raekwon McMillan who is a rock in the middle of the defense. We can see Bowling Green moving the ball at times but cannot see them scoring in the 20s. Then again, how well will all the raw talent on the Ohio St roster come together in week one ?
Tasty Tidbits
The Buckeyes are 50-4 SU under HC Urban Meyer and an impressive 30-24 ATS….Ohio St is a team that people like to back at the windows – so yes – that is a pretty good mark….The total has been STEAMED upwards from the 59 area up to the 63/64 range and that makes sense to us….The Falcons are an impressive ATS team away from home….a 39-18-2 run against the number but a new HC means reset the trends….?….Bowling Green has been +10 or better three straight seasons in turnover margin and they are ripe for a negative swing in that stat given the roster turnover this season…..Hey ?…Urban Meyer used to coach Bowling Green….should probably mention that, yo.
Summary
Too much uncertainty for us to have any confidence in this one. The over feels like a decent play but we missed the good number and will not chase it now. The Buckeyes were only 1-6 ATS as a home favorite last season. This feels like it could go either way vs the number.
Conclusion
No official play.
Lean: Pas de leanage. Not interested.