Kansas St at Stanford – Preview and Prediction
STANFORD 16 KANSAS ST (47.5)
Implied Projected Score: Stanford 31.75 Kansas St 15.75
MEGALOCKS LINE – Stanford 13
The Game
It’s a very interesting Big 12 vs PAC 12 Friday night match-up as the Wildcats travel to The Farm to take on Stanford. Kansas St should have Stanford’s full attention as the Cardinal is still smarting from last season’s opening loss to Northwestern. Both teams will be featuring new QBs. Game on.
The Match-Up
Stanford offense vs Kansas St defense
Stanford was in full JUGGERNAUT mode to end the season as they scored 42 36 35 38 41 45 in their final six games. Ryan Burns is the new starting QB and has a tall task in replacing the underrated Kevin Hogan. Burns is a tall glass of water (6-5 233) and a fine athlete who did well in camp to earn the starting role.
Our bigger concern is the offensive line that only returns ONE starter from last season’s excellent group. They are sure to miss Outland Trophy winner Joshua Garnett (#1 NFL DC). They still have Heisman candidate, all-around athletic freak and 2,000-yard rusher Christian McCaffrey in the backfield. Last season’s #1 WR Michael Rector will lead the receiving corps.
Kansas St’s defense was disappointing last season as they allowed more than 400 yards for the first time since 2010. They gave up 167 yards rushing per game and were 9th in the Big 12 in pass efficiency defense. Now the unit looks to be a lot better in 2016 with 7 returning starters including safety Dante Barnett who missed last season due to injury. The Wildcats managed to pick up an impressive 38 sacks last season and maybe they can cause some disruption while attacking Stanford’s inexperienced offensive line.
Overall, we do not see a big advantage for Stanford. This should be a pretty good match-up.
Kansas St offense vs Stanford defense
This is where the big edge is for Stanford. Kansas St was ranked 9th in the Big 12 in total offense last season (take a wild guess who was last) averaging only 334 yards per contest. Now it is NEVER a good thing when you lose your starting QB (Jesse Ertz) in the first series of a season, but it is anyone’s guess in terms of how the 2015 season may or may not have turned out otherwise. Jesse Ertz gets another shot to start and now the Wildcats have depth at the position if nothing else.
It is going to be very tough to run against Stanford particularly with an inexperienced offensive line. Charles Jones is a nice back but it is probably going to be a long day unless the OL dramatically exceeds the week one expectations. It is also hard to see the Wildcats doing much in the passing game. The Cardinal has three returning starters in the secondary.
Tasty Tidbits
Stanford is an eye-popping 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games (68%) and are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite the past two seasons…..Kansas St is 5-5 ATS L10 as a road dog (zzzz….)….Last season was their first losing season against the number since 2010 when they were 6-7…..Both teams have bye weeks coming up…..Kansas St will miss KR Morgan Burns who had an impossible 4 kickoff return TDs last year. Wut ?
Summary
It feels like Kansas St has a great shot to keep this one within 2 TDs. The problem is that we have no idea what to expect in terms of QB production for BOTH teams. That makes playing the point spread more of a guess than anything.
Conclusion
No official play.
Lean: Would not hate a play on Kansas St for small potatoes if you were desperate and needed some action. Would demand 17+ and not sure it will get there may have to wait until game time. Neutral on the total right now.