Mississippi vs Florida St – Preview and Prediction

Mississippi vs Florida St – Preview and Prediction

FLORIDA ST 6 MISSISSIPPI (59)

Implied Projected Score: Florida St 32.5 Mississippi 26.5

MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida St 4

The Game

A great way to end the week ! Florida St takes on Ole Miss in prime time.

The Match-Up

Florida St offense vs Mississippi defense

All eyes will be on freshman QB Deondre Francois making his first career start. Well, some of those eyes may be on Heisman candidate RB Dalvin Cook. We really like the experienced OL and surrounding cast at all the skill positions. Francois is in a place to succeed – even againt a tough SEC defense.

Ole Miss was tough against the run in 2015 only allowing 3.3 yards per carry. They only have 5 returning starters on defense but have a ton of talent. They are another one of those teams that we need to see in action because we cannot be sure how good they will be as a unit in game one. We think Florida St will move the ball effectively because of the balance and threats at WR and TE. Ole Miss will not go down without a fight. Fun match-up.

Mississippi offense vs Florida St defense

Chad Kelly was fantastic last season throwing for over 4,000 yards. Now he has to play at Florida St without his two leading WR from last season and their star LT who is off to the NFL. We do not think they will be able to run the ball very effectively.

The Florida St D is loaded, and while they have some new starters, they should be excellent once again. Last year they only gave up 4.7 yards per play and 17.5 points per game. Ole Miss is going to have to work for everything they get. At least we think.

Tasty Tidbits

Hugh Freeze has been a point spread covering machine in Oxford…33-18-1 ATS….The Ole Miss Land Shark defense can make a statement tonight after a bit of a subpar season in 2015…..Florida St was 5-2 as a home favorite ATS last season after going 1-6 ATS in that role the year before.

Summary

Homework assignment. Get your google search on and find out how often Florida St gives up more than 27 points at home or a neutral site in the past 5 years. We think Florida St will work slowly on offense and Ole Miss will break 27 points maybe one out of four times. Gotta take a stab.

Conclusion

Official play: Ole Miss team total under 27 -120. (BetOnline)

I WOULD PLAY DOWN TO 26. Most books out there have 26.5. I would play down to 26. For all those concerned about “official record” let’s call it 26.5.

Lean: Game under if you prefer any number 58 or better. Just a lean. Florida St could go bonkers.