Oregon St at Minnesota – Preview and Prediction
MINNESOTA 13 OREGON ST (54)
Implied Projected Score: Minnesota 33.5 Oregon St 20.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Minnesota 10
The Game
It’s a Thursday night PAC 12 vs Big 10 match-up as Oregon St heads to Minnesota for a date in The Rodent Bowl.
The Match-Up
Minnesota offense vs Oregon St defense
It feels like Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner has been around since Tom Brady was a rookie, but somehow, he is back for one more tour with the Gophers. Leidner is very crafty and almost tough to a fault. The running game is going to work very well against the Beavers defense (226 yards rushing allowed per game LY) even if top RB Shannon Brooks is unable to go. The offensive line is absolutely monstrous (projected starters listed 306, 335, 328, 316, 318) and outweigh the Oregon St front 7 significantly. It probably will not be pretty knowing Minnesota, but they should be able to get into the high 20s at a minimum in this one.
Oregon St has now given up over 400 yards offense in five of the last six seasons. In 2015, they were particularly hideous, although the were a very young unit learning a new scheme. They will be better this season but this is not a good match-up. In their final four games last season they gave up a ton of rushing yards (284, 307, 271, 308) (!) and we see them getting worn down and being susceptible to play-action passes.
Oregon St offense vs Minnesota defense
The big unknown in this game is the new QB in town. Utah St transfer Darell Garretson brings the legitimacy to the passing attack that they did not have last season. Last season’s QB (and leading rusher) Seth Collins moves to WR and may play a bit of a “slash” role this year. The Beavers’ top two WR from last season return, and when you consider the losses that Minnesota has in the secondary, there is definitely potential for Oregon St to move the ball. Now of course, we have zero confidence in their ability to run against Minnesota and that makes them a hard team to back against the point spread.
Tasty Tidbits
Oregon St was a horrid 2-10 ATS last season…..They are also 3-15 SU in their last 18 conference games which is pretty hard to fathom given where this program has been recently….In fact they are only three years removed from a bowl victory over Boise St…..Fun factoid to amuse your friends….Oregon St plays their next FBS opponent on Sept 24 (Boise St)…..they have a bye (?) week and Idaho St before that match-up….Minnesota performed a neat magic trick last season finishing with a losing record AFTER winning a bowl game.
Summary
We see a bit of perceived value in taking the underdog in this spot, particularly if the number gets up to 14. We do not trust the Oregon St defense or their running game but the talent level between these two teams is not astronomically far apart. We can see why the total has been STEAMED from the 50 region up to 54+ as the market seems to believe that the Beavers will have some success in the air.
Conclusion
No official play.
Lean: Could stomach a play on the Beavers but only at 14+ if you really need exposure to this game.