South Carolina at Vanderbilt – Preview and Prediction
VANDERBILT 3.5 SOUTH CAROLINA (42.5)
Implied Projected Score: Vanderbilt 23 South Carolina 19.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Vanderbilt 5
The Game
We have an intense SEC match-up to look forward to on Thursday as South Carolina takes on the Commodores. Both teams are aspiring to make it to a bowl game, and to be fair, BOTH teams view this as a “must-win” game in order for that to happen. Vanderbilt is gonna be jacked up after hearing that USA Today ranked them 113th in their rankings, and we cannot forget that the Gamecocks have Will Muschamp as HC, and that means the Gamecocks will be frothing at the mouth to hit someone. Anyone.
The Match-Up
Vanderbilt offense vs South Carolina defense
Get used to hearing “Webb on the carry” from the PA announcer. RB Ralph Webb is a 1,000 yard rusher and the Commodores’ best offensive player. QB Kyle Shurmur only hit 43% of his passes in limited duty last season and the running game will be the key to winning the game for Vanderbilt. To be honest, we do not know what to expect from the WR corps this season. This game will give us a good idea. The offensive line is down to two returning starters after it was announced Andrew Jelks will miss another season due to injury.
The Gamecocks are down to four returning starters on defense as CB Rico McWilliams is out indefinitely. We KNOW that Muschamp is going to get this guys to play improved defense, the big question is how much better they will be in their first game on the road. MEGALOCKS SEC INSIDERS have noted improved fundamentals and increased intensity (ya figure ?) in camp. South Carolina has yielded over 200 yards per game rushing each of the past two seasons so it is hard to imagine a huge leap forward. Then again, they held Vanderbilt to just 155 yards rushing in last year’s match-up, and if they can do that again, they are most likely going to win this game OUTRIGHT.
South Carolina offense vs Vanderbilt defense
It is not easy to predict how this will go. And this is because Muschamp has indicated it is going to be a VERY late decision in terms of who the starting QB will be. Two or three different guys may get into the mix. This is a perceived competitive advantage for South Carolina. We have to believe Perry Orth will get the most reps but who knows ?
We will find out where the production is going to come from at RB and WR. The leading returning rusher at RB is David Williams but apparently AJ Turner has looked better in camp. Deebo Samuel is the leading returning receiver from the 2015 squad and he only had 161 yards receiving last season. The offensive line will be a work in progress. So outside of some potential surprise at QB, South Carolina is going to have to work to score points.
The Vanderbilt defense promises to have another fine season. Last year they only gave up 21 points per game. The secondary looks rock solid, they have nice size at DT and leading tackler and 3rd Team AA LB Zach Cunningham is a force.
Tasty Tidbits
South Carolina is 21-4 SU all-time vs Vandy including last season’s 19-10 victory….The Commodores only managed 24 points twice last season and one of those games was against Austin Peay….Vanderbilt is a combined -24 in turnover margin the past two seasons so it is no wonder they have had two disappointing seasons after making three consecutive bowl appearances….South Carolina has a huge advantage on special teams which often makes the difference in these types of games….Just saying.
Summary
On paper this feels like a low-scoring game. The question is whether or not it is a game that will end up under the relatively low total of 42/42.5. Their is risk that the South Carolina defense plays under par on the road, and there is also the unknown QB situation that could cause trouble for the Vanderbilt D. Trend players will note that this series is 6-2-1 to the under in the last nine meetings, that Vanderbilt is 15-5-1 to the under in their past 21 games and that the Gamecocks are 11-4-1 to the under in their last 16 games.
Conclusion
No official play. Yet.
Lean: Lean under at any number 42 or better. Still looking at this game.