Toledo at Arkansas St – Preview and Prediction
ARKANSAS ST 3 TOLEDO (64)
Implied Projected Score: Arkansas St 33.5 Toledo 30.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Arkansas St 6
The Game
Arkansas St gets a chance to avenge back-to-back beatings at the hands of the Rockets when they open up the season Friday night in Jonesboro. These are two very successful under-the-radar programs and it should be a fun game.
The Match-Up
Arkansas St offense vs Toledo defense
The Red Wolves boast a fantastic offensive line that returns all five starters. It all starts there. The running game is going to be excellent once again even with the departure of last year’s leading rusher Michael Gordon. Expect both new transfer QBs (Chad Voytik – Pitt, Justice Hansen – Okla) to get action in this game. Voytik had some success at Pitt in the past and is also a crafty runner. The WR corps added a lot of speed with transfers during the off-season. Keep in mind that when Toledo played Arkansas St last year at home the Red Wolves’ QB situation was a disaster as they had to go with backup James Tabary. Three interceptions (5 turnovers overall) did not help their cause.
The Rockets had a fine defense in 2015 but come into this campaign with only three returning starters after the injury to projected starting LB Jaylen Coleman. There are going to be some growing pains given that they have a new DC and only one starter returning in the secondary. The DL is light on experience as well and one of the key pieces of the rotation has been suspended for the first two games (Marquise Moore).
Overall, we think Arkansas St is going to overwhelm Toledo at times with their speed. They will also have the ability to pound up the middle. We do not know much about Hansen but would be very happy to see Voytik start the game. Arkansas St has a new OC (from MTSU) who should be a good fit for the Red Wolves.
Toledo offense vs Arkansas St defense
The Rockets also feature an excellent ground attack and one of the best offensive lines in the MAC. Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson are a great 1-2 punch. The receiving unit looks pretty good as well. They are going to be a tough team to defend. We think it is going to be 2014 starting QB Logan Woodside taking the snaps at QB. Hard to know what to expect.
The Red Wolves’ defense is a going to be very good this season. They return seven starters and have legit talent at all levels of the defense. Last season they were tied for 2nd in the FBS in turnovers forced with 34. They held the Rockets to just 3.7 yards per carry in their battle on the road last season.
We feel that Toledo will have success, but also think that the Red Wolves will come up with more stops and win the turnover battle.
Tasty Tidbits
Arkansas St has done a great job of getting talented transfers from big name schools like TCU, Oklahoma and Alabama……The Red Wolves are 26-4 (!!) straight up a home the last 30 games…..Arkansas St is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite under HC Anderson…..Toledo was 5-0 SU on the road last year and then won their bowl game at a neutral site….pretty impressive….not only that but the Rockets have proven to be a point-spread covering machine away from home the past four seasons…..BUT…that was with former HC Matt Campbell at the controls….hmmm.
Summary
As you know, we like to build a case for a team, get a good line, and then let the chips fall where they may. Toledo has won the last two games against Arkansas St. Fact. The other fact is that these are two new teams and one of them has a new coaching staff. And the game is being played in Jonesboro. We are almost always the opposite of Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy and often prefer to play road teams – BUT – this seems like a fair price for the Red Wolves as we have the fair line closer to 6.
We like the Arkansas St defense a lot better and have a lot of respect for what HC Blake Anderson has done so far (16-10 SU, 15-11 ATS). The team speed will also be a problem for Toledo to handle.
It really feels like Arkansas St’s game to lose. Toledo has much less experience on defense and in the coaching department.
Conclusion
Recommendation: Arkansas St -3 -106