Western Michigan at Northwestern – Preview and Prediction
NORTHWESTERN 5 WESTERN MICHIGAN (52)
Implied Projected Score: Northwestern 28.5 Western Michigan 23.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Northwestern 6
The Game
This should be an excellent game. One of the best teams in the MAC takes on a legitimate Big 10 West contender. In last season’s opener Northwestern upset Stanford. Can the Broncos turn the tables ? < grabs popcorn >
The Match-Up
Northwestern offense vs W Michigan defense
The Wildcats’ running game should be able to play keep away from the potent Broncos’ offense. RB Justin Jackson was a 2nd Team Big 10 performer and ran for over 1,400 yards last season. QB Clayton Thorson is a crafty runner and can keep the chains moving. The Western Michigan defense gave up over 200 yards rushing in four of their last five regular season games. This is the match-up you have to be worried about if you are Western Michigan. Nobody on the entire NW roster last season had more than 400 yards receiving (!) and they only scored 19.5 points per game in 2015. The fact remains if they get that running game going there will be big plays to be made down the field.
W Michigan offense vs Northwestern defense
This should fun. On paper, the Broncos have one of the most potent offenses in the FBS. Excellent QB. Loaded at RB. Future NFL wide receiver. Experienced offensive line. We have to believe that they are going to be able to move the ball on Northwestern. The Wildcats defense was ranked 3rd in the FBS last season in pass efficiency defense and only gave up 5 (!) TD passes all year. The group still looks good this season with 6 returning starters but they lose a lot of last season’s PENETRATION as their top-2 DEs depart. That has to give the Broncos hope.
Tasty Tidbits
Northwestern is only 13-24 (35%) the past ten seasons as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald….they are also 0-7 L7 ATS vs MACtion opponents….hmmmmmm…..Under-the-radar trivia to impress your family and friends….The Broncos P Derrick Mitchell is a 29-yr old former minor league player with the Phillies….Broncos WR Corey Davis had 100+ receiving yards in each of his last seven games last season.
Summary
We can see the merit in taking the Broncos. That offense is fantastic. We just feel you need to get a full TD given that it is highly unlikely they will be able to slow down the Wildcats’ rushing attack. Northwestern games vs MAC opponents are 9-1 to the under L10 but would want to total a bit higher to take a stab.
Conclusion
No official play.
Lean: If you can get W Michigan +7 at any point before game time (highly unlikely) we would support a small potatoes play at that price.