Alabama at LSU – Preview and Prediction
ALABAMA 7.5 LSU (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -8.5 Sagarin ratings – 10
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 26 LSU 18.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Alabama 28 LSU 14
The Game
Here we go ! Alabama & LSU week. The Tigers have not held up their end of the bargain with a couple of losses already on the docket. The good news for LSU fans is that they are RED HOT right now under HC Orgeron. This week is going to be a huge step up in class for the Tigers as the last three games allowed them to beat up on the poor defenses of Missouri, Southern Miss and Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Alabama is undefeated and looks to be the class of the FBS once again. They won their last two games vs Tennessee and Texas AM by a combined score of 82-24. As crazy as it sounds, the SEC West is still up for grabs if LSU can pull off the upset.
The Match-Up
Alabama offense vs LSU defense
ROLL TIDE has been pretty amazing on offense. The defense gets a ton of credit, as they should obviously, but Alabama has also scored 33+ in every game this season and have the #11 ranked rushing attack in the FBS along with an efficient passing game (#30 pass efficiency). QB Jalen Hurts can hurt you big time with his legs when he is not MATRICULATING down the field. The LSU secondary is very good but they will have to stay disciplined when things break down.
LSU’s defense is ranked #13 in the FBS and rank very well vs the run and the pass. It remains to be seen how the defense can hold up against the powerful Alabama running game. Don’t get gashed up the middle and then tackle IN SPACE. Hopefully at some point Hurts can be forced into making a mistake. The Tigers have not given up more than 21 points yet this season but this will be their biggest test to date.
LSU offense vs Alabama defense
This is going to be big boy football. The amazing RB L Fournette against the brick wall run defense of ROLL TIDE. Alabama has kept him in check in recent meetings but Fournette looks healthy and ready to roll. He just ran for another 85 yard TD against Ole Miss as we were typing this sentence. You have to believe that LF will get his yards. It is all going to come down to QB Danny Etling and his ability to not give the game away with mistakes. He has played pretty well so far but this Alabama front 7 is relentless and is really going to bring the heat. Etling has a bit of mobility but nothing that is going to help him elude the Bama defenders. ROLL TIDE has quite a few defensive scores this season and LSU cannot give them any free points (#HotTake).
MEGA MORSELS
Alabama has won five straight and the scores of the last three games have been 30-16, 20-13 and 38-17……Alabama’s strength of schedule according to the Sagarin ratings is #7….that is pretty amazing since they cannot play themselves….LSU’s schedule is ranked #28.
Summary
The LSU defense is really good. Alabama’s is great. Unless the Tigers can figure out a way to win the turnover battle it is going to be tough to stay in this game. Once the run game is shut down we just have trouble seeing Etling doing enough damage whilst he is running for his life. You know we love both of these teams. Just tough to fade the best team in college football.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Alabama at -7 or better if it comes back (unlikely). Otherwise LSU TT under 17.5 or better. We are still deciding if this game gets an upgrade to official status. Assume “no” for now.