Bowling Green at Northern Illinois – Preview and Prediction
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 16.5 BOWLING GREEN (71.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Northern Illinois -14 Sagarin ratings – Northern Illinois -14
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Northern Illinois 44 Bowling Green 27.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Northern Illinois 38 Bowling Green 33
The Game
Northern Illinois. This is your mission – Should you choose to accept it. Win your last four games and become bowl eligible with an almost-certainty that you find a post-season home somewhere. This mission starts Tuesday night as the Huskies (2-6) take on the struggling Bowling Green Falcons who have only won one game all season (FCS – North Dakota).
The Match-Up
Northern Illinois offense vs Bowling Green defense
The Huskies should be able to rip through the Falcons D and do whatever it is that they want to do. Bowling Green is ranked dead last in the MAC in yards per play defense while the Huskies have a very good and balanced offense with QB Anthony Maddie at the controls. Maddie took over earlier in the year and has amassed 14 total TDs (6 rushing, 8 passing). They have a deep group at RB and Kenny Golladay is a legit #1 WR.
Bowling Green has not done much of anything right on defense. They gave up 70+ twice earlier in the year and have at least started to give up totals in the 40s. The Falcons have allowed 28 TD passes vs 5 INT. NIU is also #1 in the MAC in sacks allowed per game. Prognosis: Points.
Bowling Green offense vs Northern Illinois defense
Things look better on this side of the ball for the Falcons. QB James Morgan looks like a nice find and has thrown for 250,253,335,289 the past four games. Morgan has thrown 11 TD vs 11 INT so the mistakes are preventing the Falcons from doing serious damage on offense. In fact, Bowling Green is ranked dead last in the entire FBS (!) in turnover margin (-16) in eight games. They are giving it away to the point where it seems intentional. Back to the good news, NIU has been shredded in the air this season and are ranked 2nd to last in pass efficiency defense in the MAC.
MEGA MASTERPIECES
Amaze your Parole Officer with this gem….These two teams have played in the past THREE MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES and this season have a combined record of 3-13….Wait – it gets better – maybe….Northern Illinois is playing their final true home game on November 1…..SCHEDULING GUY has some explaining to do.
Summary
There are interesting dynamics at play. The spread might be a bit high, but at the same time, NIU should be plenty motivated to spank the Falcons after losing the MAC Championship to those guys last season, not to mention the mission towards bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Bowling Green has nothing to play for other than upsetting the apple cart and effectively ending the Huskies’ post-season hopes.
NIU has given up 28 to pretty much everyone. Maybe the best way to approach this one is a play on the Bowling Green team total ?
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Bowling Green TT over. No higher than 27. For small potatoes only.