Florida at Arkansas – Preview and Prediction
FLORIDA 4.5 ARKANSAS (47.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida -3.5 Sagarin ratings – Florida -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida 26 Arkansas 21.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Florida 24 Arkansas 21
The Game
This is going pretty much according to the script. The SEC East is almost certainly going to be won by either Florida or Kentucky. The Gators have a tough schedule awaiting them down the stretch but they are sitting alone atop the SEC East with only one conference loss and a monster defense to help lead the way. The Razorbacks are 1-3 in SEC play and 5-3 overall. They will look to finish strong and make the best bowl game possible as they host the Gators on Saturday. The Razorbacks have had a week off to stew over their humiliating loss to the JUGGERNAUT Auburn Tigers.
The Match-Up
Florida offense vs Arkansas defense
That was certainly not an epic display of offensive football last week against Georgia. The Gators only managed an impossible (?) 3.2 yards per play in their 24-10 win over the Bulldogs. The going should be a little easier on Saturday as the Razorbacks have struggled on defense this season. They have played a killer lineup of offenses (TCU, Tex AM, Bama, Ole Miss, Auburn, etc..) but have still given up a ton of points and been unable to get any kind of PENETRATION from the front seven. The Razorbacks are dead last in the SEC in yards per play allowed. Florida should be able to get the ground game going with Scarlett and Perine which will allow QB Luke Del Rio to MATRICULATE in the passing game against the vulnerable Razorbacks secondary. The real thing that should worry Hogs’ fans is the fact that Florida is excellent on 3rd down (#6 FBS) whilst Arkansas is #124 (!!) in 3rd down defense.
Arkansas offense vs Florida defense
Florida has a rock solid defense. WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED GUY can argue that the Gators have faced a LITANY of average to horrible offensive squads. Arkansas has a really good QB in Austin Allen who has been under siege all season and taking a beating. MEGALOCKS SEC INSIDERS tell us he is good to go this week. The Gators are great against the run (#5 FBS) and incredible vs the pass (#1 pass efficiency defense FBS). Arkansas has a true #1 RB in R Williams and three WR with over 400 yards each so far in 2016. It will be a challenge, but we feel that Arkansas can make some things happen on offense. They just cannot be asked to score a lot of points to win the game.
MEGA MORSELS
Florida is 10-3 ATS L13 road games…..the under is also 7-3 L10 in Gator road games…..TREND GUY will note that Arkansas is just 1-8 L9 ATS in this series.
Summary
It is very tempting to take the points with Hogs at home. The problem we see is that the Gators have the huge edge in the trenches. Arkansas has an easier time with conventional offenses.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Florida TT under for small potatoes if you need to get involved.