Iowa at Penn St – Preview and Prediction
PENN ST 7.5 IOWA (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Penn St -7 Sagarin ratings – Penn St -4.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Penn St 30 Iowa 22.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Penn St 29 Iowa 24
The Game
Somebody call the fire department because Penn St is ON FIRE. Fresh off a comeback win vs Ohio St, the Nittany Lions showed no mercy in their demolition of Purdue last Saturday. Say what you want, but that was prime letdown territory. Penn St is almost assuredly out of the Big 10 East Title chase due to their loss to the Wolverines, and also due to the fact that Michigan plays high school teams at home for the four weeks (need to check that). Iowa has lacked the magic of last season’s team that won the Big 10 West but they are still alive this season if they can finish with a bunch of wins. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
Penn St offense vs Iowa defense
Trace McSorley has done a fine job at QB for Penn St. The Nittany Lions have scored 29+ in every game this season other than games vs Ohio St and Michigan. McSorley can beat you with his legs and provides a great compliment to star RB Saquon Barkley who is becoming a devastating weapon. Penn St also has a very underrated group of WRs. Iowa is going to have their hands full, just like they have most of the season when playing decent offenses. We think that Penn St will be able to mix it up effectively and Iowa cannot rely on McSorley to give it away as he only has 3 INT so far this season.
Iowa offense vs Penn St defense
The Hawkeyes just might be able to get something going in the ground game on Saturday. Wadley and Daniels provide a nice 1-2 punch at RB (over 1,200 yards so far) and Penn St is giving up over 180 yards rushing per contest. QB Beathard proved last season that he knows how to win in the Big 10 so he will not be overwhelmed by the moment. Penn St could cause some problems when it comes to PENETRATION as they are ranked 2nd in the Big 10 in both sacks and TFL per game.
MEGA-mazing !
Iowa is 16-5 ATS in their past 21 road games….HC Ferentz is 14-14 SU off a bye and that really provides no useful information for anyone….The under is 6-2-1 L9 in the series…..These two teams have not hooked up since 2012 when Penn St visited Iowa and treated the Hawkeyes to a 38-14 beating.
Summary
This is a tough game to handicap. It is really hard to go against a Penn St team that is firing on all cylinders right now. Originally we were really interested. Upon further review, it appears that Iowa just may have the minerals to keep this one close, and while the stats do not show it, it probably helps that they have had a week off. It’s hard to believe anyone has made money off fading Iowa when they are catching a TD or more.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: We have mixed thoughts about this one. If you are leaning towards Iowa, we think that the under is also a decent play. The opposite is true with Penn St (over). That is not always the way we think about things but in this case it seems to make sense.