Nebraska at Ohio St – Preview and Prediction
OHIO ST 17 NEBRASKA (52)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -14 Sagarin ratings – Ohio St -17
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 34.5 Nebraska 17.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Ohio St 31 Nebraska 17
The Game
It’s a clash of Big 10 BIG BOYS on Saturday night as Nebraska travels to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. Yes, Nebraska is a Big 10 big boy this season. We warned WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED GUY that they would give the Badgers all they could handle last week. Now they face another tough road game a week after the OT meat grinder with Wisconsin. Win out, and the Cornhuskers win the NFC East (typo – the Big 10 West). They could still grab a trip to the Big 10 Title Game if the Badgers slip up with a 3rd conference loss. Ohio St has a conference loss and cannot afford another defeat with the big game with Michigan looming on November 26th. We are pretty sure Michigan plays Rutgers three more times before then (all at home) so it is a near-certainty that the Wolverines are going to go into that game undefeated.
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Nebraska defense
For all the criticism that JT Barrett is receiving from some folks, you have to remember that the Buckeyes are still the #2 most efficient passing team in the Big 10, and Barrett has only thrown 4 INT all season (17 TD). They have definitely had trouble MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game and good luck getting much done on a Nebraska secondary that has only allowed 7 TD passes all season vs 15 INT. Ohio St fans may not want to hear this, but Ohio St’s best shot to keep this game in a comfortable position is to run run run. The combo of Weber, Samuel and Barrett has a really good shot of dominating the time of possession battle. Last week Nebraska gave up 202 combined yards on 30 carries (6.73/pop) to RBs Ogunbowale and Clement (including OT possession). Ohio St is the #1 rushing team in the Big 10 (#2 YPC) whilst the Huskers are #10 (!) in rushing D yards per carry allowed. It seems to us that the Buckeyes have a workable game plan but are going to have to fight for every first down against a very good defense.
Nebraska offense vs Ohio St defense
The Huskers are going to have a tough time running on the Ohio St defense. Their OL has been banged up most of the season. Last week RBs Newby and Ozigbo ran for 110 yards on 27 carries and they will probably have to do a bit more this week. QB Tommy Armstrong is a warrior but his mobility seems to be a bit hampered. They are going to have to try and take some deep shots against the Ohio St secondary because they do have a fine set of WRs. Ohio St is very good in coverage (#2 pass efficiency D in Big 10) allowing 7 TDs vs 12 INT. Armstrong has struggled with accuracy again this season (53% completions, 7 INT) and will need to have his best game on Saturday to give Nebraska a shot at pulling the upset. MEGALOCKS DEEP CORN FIELD INSIDERS told us that TE Cethan Carter has been practicing and is probably ready to go this week and that would be a nice boost for the Huskers.
MEGA MORSELS
Nebraska is 14-3 ATS (!) L17 away games….Ohio St conference games are 9-2 to the under L11….Ohio St has only managed to score 23,21,24 in their last three games in regulation (scored 30 vs Wisconsin including OT)….Nebraska is not the defense that struggling offenses normally manage to dominate.
Summary
This is too many points in our opinion. As you know, we always try and avoid potential negative situations, and it is hard to know how this Nebraska team will react after the Wisconsin OT loss in which everything was left out on the field. OF COURSE, they want to win and are still in the hunt for the Big 10 West Title, you just have to realize that these guys are human and Ohio St is sitting at home waiting and ornery. And they match-up pretty well with the Cornhuskers.
If Nebraska can stay out of their own way early and stay within a TD heading into the 2nd half, there is no reason to believe they cannot make a game of it in the second half where they have shown the ability to play really well. Particularly in the fourth quarter. If they get down 10 points in this game we have a baaaaaaad feeling.
Conclusion
Official play: Nebraska / Ohio St first half under 27.5 -110 (play no lower than 27)