Nevada at New Mexico – Preview and Prediction
NEW MEXICO 14 NEVADA (59)
MEGALOCKS LINE – New Mexico -11 Sagarin ratings – 8.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: New Mexico 36.5 Nevada 22.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: New Mexico 34 Nevada 24
The Game
The wacky New Mexico Lobos were up to their old tricks last week winning the game against Hawaii on a scoop and score defensive TD. Thanks to that victory, the Lobos are still in the hunt to represent the division in the MW Conference Title Game. They are tied with Boise St one game back of Wyoming. That could potentially set up a game of EPIC PROPORTIONS on November 26th when the Cowboys visit Albuquerque. Nevada is on life support. They are coming off a bye with a record of 3-5 and need to win three of their last four games to reach bowl elibility. Considering one of those games is against San Diego St (RUH ROH !) this is essentially a must win game for the Wolfpack.
The Match-Up
New Mexico offense vs Nevada defense
We have always loved watching teams that just line up and run and cannot be stopped. New Mexico leads the NCAA in rushing (357 yards per game !) and their top two RBs T Owens and T Gipson AVERAGE 8.2 and 10.7 yards per carry respectively. They also hit a couple of big plays per game in the passing game when defenses cheat (how can they not ?) to stop the run. Nevada’s run defense is horrible ranking #125 in the FBS giving up 268 yards per game. They are also ranked #127 in 3rd down defense. Prognosis: PAIN.
Nevada offense vs New Mexico defense
QB Tyler Stewart’s career is done after a shoulder injury sidelined him for the season. Stewart was well respected and a good QB. Never good to see that. Ty Gangi stepped in vs Wyoming and threw for 300 yards while rushing for 35 and a TD. Nevada should be able to move the ball and will be pressured to keep up with the 98 yard TD runs that New Mexico comes up with every 5 minutes. They have scored 27 or more in four games this season, and while the New Mexico D is getting better, they have allowed 30+ points on five occasions. Prognosis: NOT AS MUCH PAIN.
MEGA MORSELS
We wish HC Bob Davie got more recognition for the job he is done at New Mexico….Before he got there the Lobos had THREE straight 1-11 seasons…..Think about THAT…..The under is 16-5 L21 Nevada road games…..and 30-10 last 40 Nevada games overall…..TREND GUY will be confused because New Mexico is an OVER machine….#Confusion….Last season Nevada beat the Lobos 35-17.
Summary
It seems like there are going to be a lot of points scored in this game. HOT take. New Mexico can score from anywhere and even if they get a lead will be running the same unstoppable offense for 60 minutes. Nevada should be able to run and throw on the Lobos and might end up having to go to the passing game more than they want. MEGALOCKS MOUNTAIN WEST INSIDERS alerted us to the fact that last week’s Hawaii / New Mexico game had some significant weather issues that kept the score down. LOOK AT LAST WEEK SCORES GUY will surely play the under in this one. We get some perceived value.
Conclusion
Official play: Nevada / New Mexico over 59 -108 (play no higher than 61)