Oklahoma at Iowa St – Preview and Prediction
OKLAHOMA 20 IOWA ST (70)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -16 Sagarin ratings – Oklahoma -19
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 45 Iowa St 25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Oklahoma 42 Iowa St 31
The Game
It’s almost game time for the Sooners. Oklahoma is the only team in the Big 12 with an undefeated conference record BUT they still have to play the three teams directly below them in the standings (Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma St). This week they play a struggling Iowa St team that has only managed to win one game all season (San Jose St). They have played some good games but been unable to seal the deal. Thursday night Big 12 action !
The Match-Up
Oklahoma offense vs Iowa St defense
The Sooners have really been rolling scoring 52,45,38,66,56 the last five games. QB Baker Mayfield seems to somehow be getting better every week. DeDe Westbrook has developed into one of the most dangerous WRs in all of college football. Westbrook already has over 1,000 yards to go along with 11 TD receptions. The big news this week is the suspension of leading rusher Joe Mixon. He is also the team’s 2nd leading receiver which is going a bit unnoticed. The Sooners have great depth across the roster, but given that S Perine is also out for this game, this means the running game is going to rely upon players with very little (or no) experience. They still have Mayfield to drive the Cyclones’ defense nuts with his running and passing ability.
The Iowa St defense has struggled all season stopping the run and the pass. And getting off the field on 3rd down. Their stats actually may look a bit flattering as they have not had the pleasure of playing Texas Tech, Oklahoma or West Virginia as of yet. Iowa St can hope for some turnovers but Mayfield has only thrown 5 INT all season (27 TD). Prognosis: Points.
Iowa St offense vs Oklahoma defense
Ah, the dreaded two-QB system. Iowa St actually used it pretty effectively last week as they outgained (!) Kansas St 493-398 in a 31-26 home loss. QB Joel Lanning is the “runner” (74 yards rushing last game) and Jacob Park is the “passing dude” (301 last week). The best way to score points on the Sooners is MATRICULATING into the secondary with medium and deep passes. Iowa St is going to move the ball but will obviously have trouble matching the Sooners score for score.
The Sooners have allowed 22 TD passes vs 5 INT so the opportunities are going to be there. The injury list of doubtful and questionable players is quite lengthy so the Sooners will have to rely on their excellent depth in this game.
MEGA MORSELS
Iowa St has lost 17 straight to the Sooners including the last three by scores of 52-16…59-14…48-10….not saying just saying.
Summary
Iowa St has not given up more than 45 points this season which may not sound like something to brag about, but given the state of the Sooners’ injuries and suspension list, it might be a tall order to cover 20 or so points.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Iowa St +20 or better.