San Jose St at Boise St – Preview and Prediction
BOISE ST 29 SAN JOSE ST (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Boise St -24.5 Sagarin ratings – Boise St -28.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Boise St 43.25 San Jose St 14.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Boise St 41 San Jose St 13
The Game
Whoa. Boise St inexplicably yielded a safety late in last week’s game vs Wyoming, and all of the sudden, their plans for this season have been drastically altered. Undefeated season. Poof. Winning the conference. Poof (?). The Cowboys are a game ahead of Boise and own the tiebreaker. The Broncos need to win out and get some help. Meanwhile, the Spartans are sitting at 3-6 and need to win out to become bowl eligible. They could shock the world this Friday, but realistically, their hopes of post-season play are essentially done.
The Match-Up
Boise St offense vs San Jose St defense
The Boise St offense has been very quietly just “ok” this season and certainly not the monster of past seasons. They have only topped 28 points once in the past five games (New Mexico). Statistically their passing game has been fine and the McWEAPON has been superb at RB (1,058 yards rushing 14 TD, 27 receptions 4 TD) but they have turned the ball over too much and rank very poorly in time of possession. That is fine if you are putting up video game numbers on offense but that is not the case this season. The prognosis this week is decent as the Spartans allow well over 200 yards rushing per game and are not much better defending the pass. Prognosis: points.
San Jose St offense vs Boise St defense
San Jose St has managed to have a pretty balanced offense. There are just not enough playmakers on board to help them score consistently against better defenses. They have only managed to score more than 17 points three times this season (Portland St – FCS, New Mexico, UNLV). The Broncos’ defense is good but not great. San Jose St will need to keep the chains moving on 3rd down and continue to play their brand of smart and annoying football to stay within the number.
MEGA MORSELS
Boise St is 12-0 vs the Spartans…..Broncos home games are 10-1 to the under L11….San Jose St is 2-12 ATS L14 as a road underdog.
Summary
This is a really tough game to figure out ATS. Boise St is coming off an unexpected and crushing loss to Wyoming. There is no way of knowing how they will react playing in a game that is supposed to be a blowout. Meanwhile, San Jose St does not have the kind of record as a road underdog that inspires a lot of confidence.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: San Jose St +29 or better for small potatoes if you need to have a stake in the game.