UCLA at Colorado – Preview and Prediction
COLORADO 12 UCLA (57)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Colorado -10 Sagarin ratings – Colorado -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Colorado 34.5 UCLA 22.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Colorado 31 UCLA 21
The Game
What do we have here ? The JUGGERNAUT Colorado Buffaloes are a double digit favorite for their big home date with UCLA on Thursday night. Colorado sits atop the PAC 12 South and controls their own destiny to make the conference title game. The Bruins are struggling at 3-5 and are going to have to pull off some serious magic to make a bowl game this season given the schedule that they have remaining. UCLA has lost three games in a row but those losses were by a combined 16 points.
The Match-Up
Colorado offense vs UCLA defense
Colorado has one of the most balanced offenses in the PAC 12. They also rank very well nationally (#32 rushing, #30 passing) and will be a handful for the Bruins on Thursday night. UCLA’s pass defense has been very good (#7 pass efficiency defense FBS) but the run defense has been a sore spot. Utah smashed through them for 360 yards (!) and the Buffs can really move the ball once the ground game gets heated up. RB P Lindsay is well on his way to a 1,000 yard season and averages over 6 yards per carry. QB S Liufau is a crafty veteran who spreads the ball around nicely to a bunch of reliable weapons and one game changer (WR Shay Fields….18 yards per catch, 6 TD). If UCLA can slow down the running game they have a shot. It is just hard to visualize that happening after the Utah DEBACLE.
UCLA offense vs Colorado defense
This is potentially a huge mismatch that could make things ugly for UCLA. Yes, QB Josh Rosen is out for the season and backup Mike Fafaul gets the call. The bigger concern is the horrible run blocking that has UCLA sitting at DEAD LAST in the FBS in rushing yards per game (86 yards) at less than 3 yards a pop. Their leading rusher has only 206 yards (!!) so it is not like we are talking about all of it being lost yards due to sacks. UCLA completely abandoned the run vs Utah and threw the ball over 70 times. They were competitive. It is just hard to see them doing well vs Colorado who happens to have the most efficient pass defense in the PAC 12 and the #1 stop unit overall in terms of yards per play allowed. The ball will be in the air a lot on Thursday. We expect the Buffs to pick off at least three of those passes.
MEGA MOJO
Raise your hand if you thought the Buffs would be double digit favs over UCLA back in the summer…..<crickets>….We thought the Buffs would be better but WOW they look really good….Amaze your scuba buddies with this gem….Colorado is 7-0 ATS this season and +88 vs the spread over those games….Expectations are high this week once again but who is to say they will not blow the doors off another opponent ?
Summary
It is really hard seeing UCLA staying competitive is this game by throwing on every down. They will pick up yards but that Buffs secondary is very good. Colorado will be able to be balanced. The only chance UCLA has is if the defense rises to the occasion and plays their best game of the season. They have given up 20+ in every game but one (BYU) and this just feels like a really tough spot for the Bruins.
Conclusion
Official play: None. (YET)
Lean: Colorado -11 or better. Still debating whether or not to upgrade this pick to official.