Western Michigan at Ball St – Preview and Prediction
W MICHIGAN 17.5 BALL ST (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – W Michigan -14.5 Sagarin ratings – W Michigan -21
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: W Michigan 39.25 Ball St 21.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: W Michigan 41 Ball St 20
The Game
Just win, baby. Western Michigan is sitting at 8-0 and are on track to make a REALLY good bowl game if they do not stumble along the way. Ball St is sitting at 4-4 and need two more wins to become bowl eligible. This is their toughest game of the year. No question. More Tuesday night MACtion !
The Match-Up
Western Michigan offense vs Ball St defense
The genius of the Broncos’ offense is that they can rip you apart running or passing. The Ball St run defense has been pretty good this season (#6 MAC) but they have struggled against the pass giving up 15 TD passes whilst only picking off 5. Western Michigan QB Zach Terrell just finished carving up E Michigan for 398 yards and 3 TDs so it appears that Ball St is going to be in some trouble defending the pass on Tuesday night. The Broncos have a great one-two punch at RB with J Bogan and J Franklin combining for over 1400 yards and 14 TDs in 2016. Pick your poison, Ball St. W Michigan does not turn the ball over (Terrell 20 TD, 1 INT) and are really going to have to come up with some magic to stop the Broncos who have recorded 40+ points in each of their last 5 games.
Ball St offense vs Western Michigan defense
The Cardinals have done a great job running the football this season. James Gilbert will almost assuredly go over 1,000 yards for the season in this game (987 yards,11 TD) and is going to get a heavy workload Tuesday night. The Broncos run D is ranked #2 in the MAC but #5 in yards per carry defense. It is not impossible to think that Ball St can get something going on the ground if QB Riley Neal can keep them honest with the the odd medium-deep pass. Consistently MATRICULATING in the passing game is going to be difficult for the Cardinals as the Broncos have only given up 9 TD passes all season (9 INT).
MEGA MORSELS
Say what you want…..Anything can happen on a MACtion Night….Ball St has not lost a game by more than 10 points all season…..W Michigan has proven road pedigree this season as they won on the road at NW and Illinois and destroyed the Chips and Akron……WM is 16-5 ATS L21 road games….Ball St is 4-12 ATS L16 home games…..uh oh.
Summary
What could possibly go wrong ? Famous last words of THEY ARE GONNA KILL EM GUY when playing MACtion games. The Broncos are really really good. Ball St is scrappy but we worry about them falling behind early and making mistakes in the passing game. The Broncos are a tough fade because they do not make many (any ?) errors and play efficient and smart football 24/7/365. We think the Broncos may get an unexpected tough game at some point soon, just not sure that Ball St has the MINERALS to keep up for four quarters.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Ball St first half +10 or better. Try and hold out for +10.5 or +11. Small potatoes only for people that need to have action on the game to prevent their head from exploding.