Wisconsin at Northwestern – Preview and Prediction
WISCONSIN 6.5 NORTHWESTERN (40.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wisconsin -6 Sagarin ratings – Wisconsin -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wisconsin 23.5 Northwestern 17
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Wisconsin 20 Northwestern 13
The Game
The Big 10 West race has been interesting all season long, and hang on to your hats, because it could get a lot more interesting on Saturday as Wisconsin hits the road to face Northwestern. The Badgers are coming off a big OT win vs Nebraska but are still a game behind the Huskers in a four-way tie with Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota. The Wildcats got off to a bit of a shaky start this season but have righted the ship as they always seem to do under HC Fitzgerald.
The Match-Up
Wisconsin offense vs Northwestern defense
The Badgers are doing just enough on offense. The running game was pretty good last week against and solid Husker defense (223 yards rushing) but they still have trouble MATRICULATING in the passing game with either Hornibrook or “Matt” Houston at the controls. The good news for Wisconsin is that the Wildcats, as scrappy as they may be, have given up 400 yards in each of their three games since the bye week. The are ranked #10 in the Big 10 in yards per play defense and have given up 64% completions (worst in the conference). The game plan of pounding the run game and short and safe passes seems like it will work.
Northwestern offense vs Wisconsin defense
RB Justin Jackson is well on his way to another 1,000 yard season (865 yards) but this is going to be their toughest challenge yet, and that includes Ohio St. Despite a LITANY of injuries, the Badgers keep playing fantastic defense and are super tough against the run. The wildcard in this game is the emergence of QB Clayton Thorson who is really developing nicely for Northwestern. WR Austin Carr is a legitimate #1 WR that will need to hit at least one big one to make this game interesting. It is going to be difficult to grind out drives against this defense. Wisconsin owns time of possession (#16 FBS) and the Wildcats are #125 (!) so they will need to take advantage of every opportunity that they get to score some points.
MEGA MORSELS
The under is 29-8 (!) in the last 37 Northwestern home games……The home team is 8-1 ATS L9 in the series….We guess that means a final score of 6-5 for someone ??…..Wisconsin would like to administer some payback for last season’s 13-7 home loss to the Wildcats…..Total points in NW home games this season….43,16,37,37,38.
Summary
It is hard to imagine Northwestern “out-Wisconsining” Wisconsin. The line seems about right. We are very concerned about the GAUNTLET OF FIRE that the Badgers have fought their way through. Michigan. Ohio St (OT). Iowa. Nebraska (OT). The are beat up but have a ton of fight. Toss-up ATS.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Northwestern +7 if we had to pick a side to get involved for small potatoes. Same with the under but no worse than 40.