Mississippi St at Alabama – Preview and Prediction
ALABAMA 28.5 MISS ST (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -27 Sagarin ratings – Alabama -32
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 42 Miss St 13.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Alabama 43 Miss St 12
The Game
It wasn’t pretty, but ROLL TIDE got past the LSU Tigers last week in Death Valley and only allowed 125 yards of offense. That moves them to 9-0 with the only realistic test left on the regular season docket being a home date with Auburn on November 26th. The Bulldogs have a record of 4-5 and need to win two games for bowl eligibility. We will go out on a limb and say that they will need to beat Arkansas and Ole Miss in the final two weeks of the season to reach that target.
The Match-Up
Alabama offense vs Miss St defense
ROLL TIDE has only put up 451,323 yards the past two games, and after seeing what Miss St did to the Aggies, it makes you wonder if they are just a bit out of sorts right now. The good news is that the offense can still strike quickly and often, especially when the defense gives them short fields. Miss St has allowed 35,38,28,40,41,28 the past six games on defense and we see no reason why Alabama cannot get into the mid-30s even with a bit of an LSU hangover. It is a virtual certainty that Bama scores on defense as well. Miss St has allowed the most passing TDs in the SEC by a large margin (21) and we feel like they are going to get smoked for some big plays when focusing on the run. That is, unless Kiffin calls 45 straight screen passes again.
Miss St offense vs Alabama defense
Yes, it was the Aggies’ defense, but QB Nick Fitzgerald was a monster last week accounting for almost 400 yards running and passing. The bad news is that is pretty much all that the Bulldogs have when they face top notch defenses. Fred Ross is a fine WR, but after Fitzgerald (839) nobody else on the team has more than 400 yards rushing. It feels like there will be a lot of 3rd and long against the #2 defense in the FBS (#1 run defense).
MEGA-MAZING MORSELS
Alabama has played Miss St the week after LSU the past three seasons and won by scores of 31-6…25-20….20-7….Miss St is obviously a lot different at QB this season and the D not as solid….Alabama has only allowed 10,0,6,14 in their four home games….The under is 14-2-1 L17 in the series.
Summary
Might be a few too many points, but the problem with taking Miss St is that they are probably not going to move the ball much, and that means Alabama will have a lot of opportunities to score. And yes, the back-ups can do damage as well.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Under 55 or better for small potatoes.