NCAA Football Analysis Week 11 – Quick Takes
QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week…..
NCAA Football Predictions and Analysis
Florida St 21 Boston College (48)………..MEGALOCKS line Florida St -23.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 34.5 Boston College 13.5
Florida St is coming into this game with three losses but all of them have been vs legit competition….Clemson, Louisville, UNC…They are beat up but still plenty motivated to make a decent bowl game….The Seminoles have given up almost 1,000 yards combined the past two games but get the #126 ranked offense in the FBS this week…Boston College has given up 26 points per game this season (15 last season) and have allowed 49+ in three ACC games this season (!)….The #105 pass efficiency D could get shredded even though Florida St will be without #2 WR Jesus Wilson…..BC needs two more wins to reach bowl eligibility but have two winnable games left on the docket (UConn, Wake)…Florida St has won 6 straight in the series….The road team is 8-3 ATS L11.
Quick Take…..Lean Florida St -21 or better.
Georgia Southern 8.5 Louisiana Lafayette (46.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -10
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 27.5 La Lafayette 19
The Eagles need two wins in their final three games to reach bowl eligibility, and considering that one of those games is against Troy, this is a game they really need to grab…..They got the ground game going last week against Ole Miss (too easy to make a wisecrack) but go up against a pretty stiff run defense as the Ragin Cajuns are ranked #2 in the Sun Belt in yards per carry defense….The Ragin Cajuns have struggled scoring points this season and will rely on workhorse RB E McGuire to do most of the heavy lifting….The Eagles have given up 30+ in three of the last four games but should be able to manage this offense…..For all you Young Sparkies out there…it has not been too long since the Ragin Cajuns were really good….From 2011-2014 they won NINE games per season and finished off each campaign with a bowl victory….FYI….the under is 13-3 L16 Ga Southern conference games.
Quick Take…..Under 45 or better.
North Carolina 10.5 Duke (59.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 35 Duke 24.5
It’s the battle for the Victory Bell…..and it is a battle that the Tar Heels have won 23 of the past 26 games…UNC is tied for the ACC Coastal division lead with Virginia Tech but are in rough shape because they lost to the Hokies earlier this season…..Duke would need to win out to make a bowl game and that does not look likely with their remaining schedule….This just may be positioned as their “bowl game” so beware….UNC has won three straight and really has the offense clicking….They have scored 111 points (!) the last two games vs Duke….The Blue Devils may have to go to the “clock ball” strategy that they used against Louisville to keep the game close…It just may work because the UNC run D is suspect and the Blue Devils have ran the ball really well the past two games (254,227) and one of those games was without leading rusher Jela Duncan who is out for the season…..Really tough game to cap because this a proven nightmare match-up for Duke BUT we have to believe that a really good coach like Cutcliffe will do everything in his power to avoid a shootout scenario that they cannot possibly win.
Quick Take…..Duke +11 if you can get that by game time….Would have liked the over at the opener of 55ish but cannot justify taking a 60 or so now…..Duke just may try to steal this one with a slow tempo game plan….just a guess….May do some additional reading on this one.
Iowa St 10 Kansas (56)…….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 33 Kansas 23
It’s a Big 12 match-up for die hard fans only…..Iowa St (1-8) takes on Kansas (1-8) in a game that we can only hope goes to 7 OT in order to achieve full viewer satisfaction…..Iowa St has the proven pedigree in this game….losses do not count for much BUT they have lost to Oklahoma, K St, Baylor and Okie St by 10,5,3,7 respectively…..Kansas comes up with the odd miracle half every 5-6 home games or so but the talent equation favors Iowa St….Now they did lay it on the line last week vs Oklahoma but we feel that the QB situation for Iowa St is a big edge….the Lanning/Park combo are better than anything KU can throw out there….On the flipside….Kansas is feeling like they can win this game and they move fast on offense – imagine Baylor but 11 times as fast – so we are sure to see a lot of plays in this game…..Hide the women and children.
Quick Take….Over 56 or better for small potatoes.
Tulsa 1.5 Navy (69.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – PICK EM
Vegas Implied Score – Tulsa 35.5 Navy 34
This is a really hard game to handicap. Two insanely contrasting styles. Up tempo, high scoring 21st century offense….vs the methodical and equally devastating and efficient triple option….Both teams are playing extremely well….Navy is coming off a yuuuuuge win over Notre Dame…..Tulsa was won the last three games by a combined score of 154-81…..In fact, total points scored in the last five Tulsa games have been 83,69,77,89,69…..That includes games vs Tulane and SMU in there….Navy can grind the clock but can also score quickly and the Tulsa defense is pretty rotten…We would want 3+ points to take either side in this one….The total may be the way to go if you need some action…..Don’t forget….Navy has played in some high scoring games already this season….86,70,97,55 last four games.
Quick Take….Over 69.5 or better for small potatoes.
Notre Dame 14 Army (51)…….MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -14
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 32.5 Army 18.5
MEGALOCKS Early Taster Club members grabbed an 11.5 on Sunday with the recommendation to play no higher than 14…..Well here it is…..Notre Dame gets to play the triple option two weeks in a row which is very helpful…..and even more helpful is the fact that Army is struggling right now and are not running their offense with close to the same efficiency as Navy…..The Irish have not been as explosive on offense as we might have though, but while Army’s D has held up nicely so far, they have played a very weak slate of opposing offenses and QBs….Notre Dame should get to their implied team total and not sure that Army will be able to get to their number.
Quick Take….Notre Dame no higher than -14. Total looks properly lined.
Louisville 34.5 Wake Forest (54.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -27
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 44.5 Wake Forest 10
The 8-1 Cardinals take on the 0-56 Demon Deacons…..hey….wait….the spread is 5 TDs and Wake Forest is 6-3 ??…..Our bad…..Wake Forest is already bowl eligible but have the brutal back-to-back combo of Louisville and Clemson to contend with….Wake Forest has essentially no passing game but can be very annoying picking up first downs with a sneaky rushing attack (164/game)….It is a bad match-up as Louisville is ranked #7 in the FBS in stopping the run so it seems unlikely that Wake will be able to score more than 10-14 points….Then you have to ask yourself….Can Louisville rip through the Wake Forest D like a comedy skit when the Deacs have only allowed more than 30 points once all season (33 – NC State) ?….Make no mistake, Lamar Jackson will have a really good day, particularly against the Wake secondary, but unless the Cards pitch a shutout or allow only 3 points, it is going to be a difficult cover in our estimation……NARRATIVE STREET GUY will tell you that the Cards need to impress the college football world and score tons of points….and while that may be true…..Wake is not the BC defense and they will not just roll over and say – “go ahead, pummel us !”.
Quick Take….Lean Wake +34.5. Would play no lower than +33 for small potatoes.
Ohio St 28.5 Maryland (57.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 43 Maryland 14.5
Everyone that knew Maryland has five wins – raise your hand !……<crickets>…..But yes indeed, the Terps own a record of 5-4 and have played some decent football this season….They have been really hit hard by injuries (again) all over the roster….They still have a good shot to make a bowl appearance as they face Rutgers in the regular season finale at home…..Crafty QB Hills was banged up (AGAIN) last week and is questionable to play on Saturday….Caleb Rowe provides a passing threat (200 passing yards vs Michigan) but is usually good for an INT or three….The running game is faced with another nightmare match-up as Ohio St is ranked #22 in the FBS vs the run….and their pass efficiency defense is ranked #1 in FBS….soooooooooooo….could be a long day for the Terps….They just got steamrolled for 273 yards and 5 TDs rushing by Michigan and we can see Ohio St getting 300+ in this one…….Even a semi-healthy Maryland squad would have a decent shot of making it interesting for a while but this feels like blowout city.
Quick Take….Lean Ohio St TT over or Ohio St -28.5…Whatever you prefer if you need to get involved in this one. Maryland has allowed 101 points the past two games.
Texas A&M 10.5 Ole Miss (54.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -10
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 32.5 Ole Miss 22
This feels like a game that should be best left untouched…..Both teams will be rolling with back-up QBs….although we will say that QB J Hubenak looked fine last week although he obviously does not provide the running ability that T Knight did…..The offense should be able to move vs a very weak Ole Miss defense and should score in the 30s without a problem…The bigger question is how Ole Miss handles things without their very good veteran QB Chad Kelly who we always thought deserved a bit more credit (despite his mistakes)…particularly this season when the pressure was on to score on seemingly every possession due to the performance of the defense….In any event…we are not experts in the Ole Miss backup QB situation because frankly they have not been needed over the past two seasons due to the durability of Kelly….We cannot see it being a good thing going on the road to face Texas A&M with an inexperienced QB and bad defense. We cannot imagine Freeze burning the redshirt of highly-touted freshman QB Shea Patterson but that is an interesting story to follow.
Quick Take…Hey, now that we think about it, lean Texas A&M -10.5 if you wanna get involved in this one. Small potatoes.
Florida 10.5 South Carolina (37.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Florida -10
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 24 South Carolina 13.5
It sure did not look pretty last week….and the Gators are now without QB Luke Del Rio….and they are banged up on defense….The thing is…they still have the #3 rated defense in the FBS and are #2 in pass efficiency defense….It is going to ask a lot of COCKS freshman QB Jake Bentley to successfully navigate that defense without making mistakes….He has looked REALLY good so far and there is NO doubt that S Carolina fans should be excited…..But the spread seems about right….Hard to see the Gamecocks moving the ball consistently….QB Austin Appleby should be fine in relief…..Florida is still in control of the SEC East and only have 2 losses…..Here is little tasty tidbit for die hard MEGALOCKS TITANIUM MEMBERS….South Carolina has not played a road game since SEPT 24 at Kentucky…..So as good as they have looked recently….We may need to turn it down just a notch no matter how horrible the Gators may look to some right now…..SC has given up almost 200 yards per game on the ground.
Quick Take…Total is just a bit too low for our tastes…..Spread looks about right. Gonna take a pass…..If the line gets to -10 we would probably do the unthinkable and play Florida for small potatoes.
MTSU 9 MARSHALL (60)…….MEGALOCKS line – MTSU -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – MTSU 34.5 Marshall 25.5
Marshall is has been really disappointing this season….They are sitting at 2-7 with their only two wins coming against Morgan St (FCS) and FAU….MEGALOCKS C-USA DEEP INSIDERS tell us that the team is very unhappy (#HotTake) with the way the season has gone, and more importantly, how the QB situation has been handled…..Chase Litton has not taken a move forward this season and backup QB G Morrell has shown some ability at times. The bigger issue is that their offense and defense are BOTH ranked #114 in the FBS. MTSU lost star QB Brent Stockstill for the season last week, and while this is a “system” offense….it is always hard to gauge how things might go…..Lest we forget…MTSU has given up 44,45,35,45 last four games…..They already have six wins for bowl eligbility.
Quick Take….Lean Marshall TT over.