Indiana at Michigan – Preview and Prediction
MICHIGAN 23 INDIANA (53)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -24 Sagarin ratings – Michigan -31.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 38 Indiana 15
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Michigan 43 Indiana 16
The Game
The Big 10 divisional races have had a bit of everything. Great defense. Great offense. And of course, we cannot forget the CANNON FODDER like Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland, Illinois, and Sparty that have allowed for some many teams to have 4-6 conference wins already. Michigan just needs to win this game to set up the GAME OF THE MILLENNIUM against Ohio St on Nov 26. But wait. Is it still a game of the millennium if Penn St beat Ohio St ? Ok. We are confused. Let’s move on !
Indiana continues to be KING of the NEAR UPSET. They have been playing CONSISTENT football all season. They just seem to be unable to finish no matter what unit is on the field. And when they cannot win, they make sure to point shave so that teams like Penn St can get the cover. In any event, The Hoosiers are sitting at 5-5 and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Either win this week in the Big House, or play in Purdue’s sure-to-be SUPER BOWL on Nov 26 and get the W at that point. Back to back bowl appearances would be a good way to keep this program on the right track.
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs Indiana defense
Ok. It’s overreaction time. And this is when our staff will look to pull the trigger on Michigan. QB Wilton Speight is out and it is time for the O’KORN factor to rise to occasion at QB and led the Wolverines to the playoff. History is littered with examples of teams doing great things with back-up QBs (hey, we think a team from Ohio St recently won the whole thing with more than one QB getting hurt) so we KNOW that it can be done. Last time we checked, Michigan still had a great defense and fantastic running game.
O’Korn was right there in the mix to win the starting job in the first place so we see no drop in production, although to be certain, nobody REALLY knows. Usually what happens is that the other players turn it up a notch to compensate for the new QB. Given the weapons that Michigan has on offense, and the fact that the Hoosiers have been giving quite a few points (33,21,38,27,24,36,27,45 last 8 games), we see the Wolverines getting comfortably into the 30s and we are not accounting for defensive and special teams TDs. Indiana did a good job with the Penn St offense last week but they still gave up over 400 yards at home. And two weeks before that Maryland put up 517 yards.
Indiana offense vs Michigan defense
What is interesting about this Indiana team is that they are, in a way, a bit of a mirror image of last season’s squad. First of all, they are good. But this season the defense has performed above expectations whilst the offense has been the opposite. That has to be frustrating for Hoosiers’ fans, but at the same time, they are definitely a legit Big 10 team at the moment.
Our biggest worry for the Hoosiers is trying to pass against the best defense in the FBS (#1 total yards allowed) and the #3 pass efficiency defense. The running game is not going to have much of a chance, and now that Michigan knows that they love to fumble, it could be a long day.
MEGA MINUTIA
OVER PLAYERS UNITE…..Indiana games are 43-21-1 to the over L65…..Michigan is 15-3 to the over L18….Indiana is (-6) in turnover margin the last two games and that….uh….needs to get straightened out, yo.
Summary
We see no reason why the Wolverines cannot win this game comfortably. Indiana is good, and Michigan has a “back-up” QB, but Michigan still has a lights-out defense and the O’KORN factor may just light a spark under the boys.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Michigan -23. Would play up to -24 for small potatoes.