Ohio St at Michigan St – Preview and Prediction
OHIO ST 22 MICHIGAN ST (53)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -21 Sagarin ratings – Ohio St -27.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 42.5 Michigan St 10.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Ohio St 38 Michigan St 14
The Game
Ok. For real. It is hard to imagine where your heads are at if you are part of the Ohio St football program. It used to be – beat Michigan – and you are in the playoff. Now, Penn St has become a yuuuuuuge part of the conversation. Now an Ohio St win over Michigan may not even mean what ESPN promised it would mean. Crisis.
Meanwhile, you have to be proud of Michigan St. They won a Big 10 game (at home to Rutgers) but now get the ultimate step up in class. The Spartans are going to miss bowl season for seemingly the first time in recorded history. Seven losses ain’t gonna cut it, yo.
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Michigan St defense
Research assignment for young MEGALOCKS Sparkies. Go find out the last time that a team won in back to back weeks by scores of 62-3……<crickets>. That is precisely what the Buckeyes have done the past two weeks and one of those contests was against Nebraska. The offense appears to be rolling, and you know that we have always felt that QB JT Barrett does not get the credit he deserves. One way or another, Ohio St is #2 in the NCAA in scoring offense and #11 in total offense. So every time you hear some schmuck tell you about the crappy Ohio St offense just turn it over to the Bette Middler classics channel. The Buckeyes are 10th in rushing offense in the FBS and #16 in passing efficiency. Michigan St is not the defense that is going to solve the riddle of the Sphinx. Before the “bye week game” vs Rutgers they had given up 28,30,24,31,54,28,32,31. It’s hard to imagine Ohio St not getting into the high 30s / low 40s in this game.
Michigan St offense vs Ohio St defense
The Spartans have sketchy QB play, but they can run the football. The question becomes, can they run it with success against Ohio St ? They might be able to be creative, slow the game down, and make some 3rd down conversions. It is just hard to imagine them sustaining much over a full 60 minutes. The Ohio St D has been rock solid in Big 10 play and we would be surprised if the Spartans could get more than 14 points on the board.
MEGA-MAZING MINI BITES
Ohio St is 42-18-1 ATS L61 road games….just excuse the Penn St blip…..The road team is 7-1 ATS L8 in the series…….Michigan St is in the enviable position of being able to ruin someone’s season in either of their last two games…..if they do not get Ohio St….Penn St may be the victim….Just some motivation for a really good HC in Dantonio that does not need any help.
Summary
Fade Ohio St ? No thanks. They are playing great football right now, and while the spread may be a bit rich, it would not surprise us to see carnage on Saturday.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Ohio St. Would play up to -24.