NCAA Football Analysis Week 12 – Quick Takes
QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week…..
NCAA Football Predictions and Analysis
Kent St 3 Bowling Green (57)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kent St -1
Vegas Implied Score – Kent St 30 Bowling Green 27
There is no such thing as an awful MACtion game and this bad boy is no exception…..These two teams are a combined 5-15 but Kent St features Swiss Army knife QB Nick Holley who ran for 141 yards last week vs the Broncos, not to mention the #2 ranked D in the MAC…Bowling Green features an exciting QB (James Morgan) who creates points on seemingly every play (14 TD 13 INT) for somebody….He is only going to get better….Kent St’s pass D is excellent (#1 pass eff D in MAC) but they can be run on as they just finished getting steamrolled by W Michigan for 329 rushing yards….BG RB F Coppet could have a yuuuge day…..Kent coming off a game in which they had W Michigan down 14-0 and lost….not sure where their heads will be at…BG off a win (+4 in turnovers tho) vs Akron and have actually some “good losses” on their resume during MAC play….Sorry had to throw in that ridiculous playoff committee terminology……Dog is 14-6 ATS L20 in the series…..Kent games are 19-8-1 to the under L28…..Falcons looking to do the unthinkable and win two straight vs FBS teams.
Quick take: Lean Bowling Green at +3 or better…..If you cannot get +3 maybe a small taste on the ML.
Toledo 20.5 Ball St (63.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -21
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 42 Ball St 21.5
It feels like survival mode for the Rockets lately….Just keep winning and set up a YUUUUUGE game with W Michigan on November 25th for all the MAC WEST MARBLES…..Toledo has had a really nice season (8-2) so far and now get the struggling Ball St Cardinals at home on Tuesday night….Ball St is on bowl eligibility life support (4-6) and have lost three straight….They have been also LIT UP for 100 points and almost 1200 yards (!) the past two games and that is not a good sign when you go on the road and face Toledo.
Quick take: Lean to the Toledo TT over.
Troy 9 Arkansas St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -6
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 31.25 Arkansas St 22.25
Sun Belt FUNBELT ! This is pretty much the “Conference Title Game” as Troy squares off with the DEFENDING CHAMP Arkansas St on Thursday night…..Both teams are undefeated in conference play….If Arkansas St can pull the upset they will just have ULL and Texas St on the docket to seal up another title….If Troy wins the game they would only need one more win to ice this bad boy and it should be noted that they have Texas St on their schedule…..Troy has reeled off 7 straight wins since their loss to Clemson….but keep in mind……we feel that they are the best team in the conference on paper but did have a close calls with Georgia St (!) and South Alabama….They are laying some lumber in this game against a program that knows how to win big games….Troy has a very good QB and a 1,000 yd RB in Jordan Chunn that are going to keep the Red Wolves busy….Arkansas St is going to have trouble running the football but should be able to MATRICULATE some in the passing game…..It will be yuuuuge to win the turnover battle…..Arkansas St conference games are 20-5-1 to the over L26…..Troy home games are 19-7 to the over last 26.
Quick take: Lean to Arkansas St at +7 or better. (Note – EARLY TASTER CLUB members got the Arkansas St recommendation at +8…..We may have misjudged this one ….It happens)
Northern Illinois 3 E Michigan (61)………..MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -1
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 32 E Michigan 29
Raise your hand if you had NIU at 3-7 coming into this game before the season started…..<crickets>…..How about E Michigan at 6-4 ??…..<crickets>….We thought E Michigan could be better this season but did not see the NIU IMPLOSION…..They now have 7 losses and are eliminated from bowl contention which is the first time that has happened since the invention of dirt….Where will there motivation be for this one ??? Power ratings are not going to be of much help if they come out flat – E Michigan could win big….They are 6-4 and are technically bowl eligible but you know they want to leave NO DOUBT and win #7 to make it a certainty…There appears that there is going to be a 6-win logjam around that magical six win mark in the MAC….Neither team plays much defense….both teams have exciting QBs….We LOVE seeing teams like the Eagles succeed and fans must be relishing the chance at defending their DOCUMENTED undefeated bowl record (1-0….1987 California Bowl)……Feel like NIU has the better talent BUT not as big of a margin as you may think….and as we eluded to….They could have mailed it in there is no way of knowing….Feels like E Michigan or nothing in this one.
Quick take: Lean E Michigan at +3 or better….ML an option for loose cannon degenerates.
Tennessee 16 Missouri (68)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -14
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 42 Missouri 26
They live ! The Volunteers have gone from TEAM OF DESTINY…..to SCRUBS…..to TEAM OF DESTINY in the span of just over a month…..If they can win their last two games against Missouri and Vanderbilt whilst Florida loses to LSU….They win the SEC East….Beating Tenn Tech and Kentucky does not instill a ton of confidence with us BUT this is another very winnable game….What could possibly go wrong ?…..QB J Dobbs looked great last week and the team rushed for 376 yards….of course they allowed Kentucky to rush for 443 yards (!?) and put up over 600 in total….Missouri’s season is over with 7 losses but have to be motivated to play spoiler…They are coming off a decent home win over Vanderbilt…..Their offense is really good and balanced (#24) FBS and our biggest concern for them is turning the ball over because they are probably not going to need their punter much in this game….Neither is Tennessee……Pressure is all on the Vols….Over seems like the obvious play but 68 is a fully valued number…..Under is 16-6 L22 Missouri games…..Tennessee has given up 28,31,45,49,24,36 in the last 6 games vs FBS opponents.
Quick take: Lean to Missouri TT over 27 or less.
Georgia 23 UL-Lafayette (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -21
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 34 UL-Lafayette 11
The Ragin’ Cajuns are coming off a really nice performance against Ga Southern in which they outgained the Eagles 482-306 and allowed only 52 yards rushing…Now of course this is a yuuuuge step up in class but the defense has only allowed 24,3,23,26 the past four contests and it is not like Georgia is an offensive JUGGERNAUT…..ULL still needs two wins to become bowl eligible and will almost certainly need to win their final two games against Arkansas St and ULM to make that happen…..Georgia is playing with confidence and are coming off a sneaky-good road win at Kentucky and a really nice win over Auburn….They have still only exceeded 20 points once in the last four games……Nasty sandwich situation for Georgia as they have the Yellow Jackets on deck.
Quick take: Lean to Georgia TT under. ULL +23 or better.
Utah 14.5 Oregon (70.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Utah -14
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 42.5 Oregon 28
This bad boy escalated quickly from the 12 point line on Monday and now sits at 14/14.5….Hard to not love SACK LAKE CITY and the Utes who came up with a mind-boggling 11 sacks vs Arizona St last week….They are still in the PAC 12 South title hunt but USC and Colorado refuse to lose !….Some good football being played out there…An 8-2 record does not buy what it used to….Meanwhile Oregon is tanking for the #1 OVERALL DRAFT PICK and sitting at an unthinkable 3-7 right now….They have two games left and have to believe the one they want is the Oregon St game on Nov 26th….Oregon was only outgained last week 540-500 but were (-4) in the turnover department and when you do that vs Stanford you are lucky to stay within 50 points…..Ducks have given up 70,52,35,45,52 last five games….That used to be ok when their offense was unstoppable but not so much anymore.
Quick take: Utah -14 or better for small potatoes if you can grab it now…Or if it comes back a bit….Doubt that it will but stranger things have happened….Like when Arizona St got MOB STEAM last week vs Utah.
Penn St 28 Rutgers (58)……….MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -24
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 43 Rutgers 15
Was a solid -28 at most shops all day yesterday and will probably be there for a while until closer to game time when we can see it trickling up a bit…..Rutgers has already lost Big 10 games 58-0….78-0 and 49-0….They have almost SHOCKED THE WORLD with a close loss (34-32) at Minnesota and blowing a lead vs Indiana (lost 33-27)….QB Rescigno has looked decent, not so much last week, but nobody showed up for that Mich St DEBACLE…..If Rutgers has any pride they will show up for the home finale after getting waxed…..Penn St has been ON FIRE recently but were outgained by Indiana last week and scored quickly and comically late in the game to cover the spread….They could only manage 79 yards rushing vs the Hoosiers…..A trip to the Big 10 Title game is there for the taking if they win their last two games.
Quick take: Impossible to play Rutgers given how horrible they can look at times. Cannot endorse Penn St at the current number of 27.5/28. Lean to Rutgers TT over. Penn St has given up 42,49,24,31 in four road games. Yes, this is Rutgers, but that is what we would do if needed action on this bad boy.
Wisconsin 27.5 Purdue (49.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Cheese -27
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 38.5 Purdue 11
The Badgers need only to win their final two games against Purdue and Minnesota to stamp their passport for the Big 10 Title Game….and possibly more (?)…..Their defense has been simply outstanding this season and they have played a truly difficult schedule…..Speaking of the defense, they have only given up more than 10 points once in the last four games (17 – Nebraska) so somehow someway seem to be getting stronger….Purdue has appeared to have mailed it in for the season which is a bit disappointing because they have showed some flashes at times on offense….They have given up 62,44,45 the past three games. Prognosis: PAIN.
Quick take: Lean to Badgers at -28 or better.
W Michigan 34 Buffalo (60)……….MEGALOCKS line – W Michigan -30
Vegas Implied Score – W Michigan 47 Buffalo 13
It is all but settled. W Michigan and Toledo seem to be on a COLLISION COURSE WITH DESTINY for a winner-take-all game on Nov 25…..winner takes the MAC West……Toledo just has to beat Ball St (3 TD fav) and the W Michigan game is meaningless for MAC purposes…..BUT….not so fast….The Broncos are undefeated and still have a great shot at making the most prestigious bowl in school history so you have to believe they will be keeping their foot on the gas….The Broncos started a bit slow last week but still put up 37 points on a good Kent St defense….That was their lowest output since Sept 17th (Illinois – 34)…..They can rip you apart on the ground and through the air….And the defense is ranked #2 in the MAC in yards per game allowed….Buffalo is going to have their hands full but they have been SNEAKY GOOD the last three games….Amaze your local Subway sandwich artist with this gem….Buffalo has outgained their last THREE opponents (Akron, Ohio, Miami-Oh) and while they are not going to outgain the Broncos this feels like way too many points…..HAVE TO WIN FOR STYLE POINTS GUY will have the Broncos winning 98-0 just because they have to…..We are not so sure.
Quick take: Lean to Buffalo at +34….Can even take it a smidge lower….might be best to wait until Saturday.
Memphis 7 Cincinnati (60)……….MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -7
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 33.5 Cincinnati 26.5
The road to riches is littered with people who have lost all their worldly possessions betting on a Tommy Tuberville team. We have had a hard time pegging the Bearcats this season, but it just may be the we will not have to worry about them much longer in 2016. They are sitting at 4-6 and need to beat Memphis and Tulsa to reach the magical 6-win plateau for bowl eligibility. Coming into this season, HC Tubs was 17-7 SU in AAC games with the Bearcats, but they are only 1-5 in 2016. It is hard to believe that Cincy has only scored 19 (!!) points in their last 3 games combined and are ranked #102 in offense in the FBS. Their defense is decent but Memphis is going to score some points so you better plan on doing some damage yourself.
Speaking of Memphis, they have a fine offensive squad (#33 FBS) and are particularly effective at MATRICULATING in the passing game. The Tigers have put up 93 points in the past two games combined and should be able to get into the 30s even on the road at Cincinnati. The Bearcats are 2nd in the AAC in interceptions (15) and are going to have to get at least a couple of INT in this one to keep it close. QB Riley Ferguson has been pretty efficient this season but has thrown 9 picks.
Quick take: We are on Bearcats’ protest until further notice. Memphis already has the requisite six victories for bowl eligibility and have been eliminated from conference title contention. That is our only worry about taking Memphis. If we had to pick a side, we would still go with Memphis at -7 or better, but only for the smallest of small potatoes.
Boise St 29 UNLV (64)……….MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 46.5 UNLV 17.5
Really quick take, yo. Was originally interested in UNLV. They ran for over 400 yards (!) last week against the JUGGERNAUT Wyoming Cowboys (3-OT). Sure, that was a taxing effort, but we are always interested in underdogs catching 30 or so points that can move the ball. And Boise has a SOFT UNDERBELLY. Upon further review, leading WR D Boyd is out for the year and RB L Thomas looks like he will miss the game as well (632, 8TD). Normally, we do not like to get our mind distracted by injuries, but when playing on a donkey at Boise, you want to have everything going for you.
If stats are to be believed, Boise is 0-8 ATS L8 home games. Wut ?
Quick take: Just no interest at all. Even for small potatoes.
TCU 5.5 Oklahoma St (70)……….MEGALOCKS line – TCU -4.5
Vegas Implied Score TCU 37.75 Oklahoma St 32.25
Well, well, well. If the Fighting Mike Gundys can win their last two games against TCU and Oklahoma they will win the Big 12, and do not laugh, have an outside shot at making the CFB playoff. Now of course, winning those games is a yuuuuuuuge thing to ask of the Cowboys, but they have proven themselves to be a tough out over the course of the season with a record of 8-2.
TCU went to POUND TOWN vs Baylor on November 5th winning by a score of 62-22. They put up almost 700 yards of offense. What has REALLY been lost in the discussion is the improvement in the TCU defense. The last three games they have only given up 27,27,22 playing WV, T Tech and Baylor (!!). While it is true they lost two of those games, TCU may be ready for another peak effort.
The road team has only won ONE of the last 11 meetings. And Oklahoma St is coming off three tough games (home dog win vs WV, comeback road win vs K St, one point win over T Tech) whilst TCU is coming off a bye.
Quick take: Lean to TCU -5 or better for small potatoes. Not going to touch the total, but think the under may have value.